80s Tuesday across southern Minnesota; 90 possible in the west

Rain looks increasingly likely heading into the weekend

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Forecast highs Tuesday
National Weather Service

It will be a very warm couple of days Tuesday and Wednesday with highs running 10 to as much as 20 degrees above normal. Rain continues to look hopeful for the weekend.

Very warm midweek

It’ll be downright hot by late September standards in western Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Some spots could hit 90 degrees while most of southern Minnesota reaches at least the low 80s.

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Forecast highs Tuesday
National Weather Service

The warmth shifts east some Wednesday giving places like the Twin Cities our warmest readings of the week, in the mid-80s.

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Forecast highs Wednesday
National Weather Service

We’ll continue to see low 80s south on Thursday but as a weekend storm system approaches and clouds increase, we’ll cool off some Friday into the weekend.

Rainy weekend pattern potentially

An upper-level trough and low in the west will slowly be pushing east toward the end of the week, pushing our heat away and creating chances for rainfall. It could develop into a “cut-off” or closed off upper-low which, would make for a slowly moving system.

The upper level-forecast pattern into the weekend indicates a developing upper-low storm system.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center calls for a widespread 1 to 2 inches over the course of several days.

WPC 120
Forecast potential total rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

However there’s a wide range of possible rainfall amounts among the computer models.

Various computer model forecast scenarios for rainfall totals through Sunday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Given that we’re in a prolonged drought, a healthy dose of skepticism is valid still until the evolution of this system becomes more clear.