Weekend storm pattern shifts east; Twin Cities may see more rain

Severe weather possible Saturday in southern Minnesota

Excess rain
Excessive rain outlook for Saturday into Saturday night
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Prediction Center

A large storm system will bring widespread rainfall over the weekend with the potential for severe storms Saturday in southwestern Minnesota.

Friday’s forecast models indicate that the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota may get heavier rainfall than was initially forecast Thursday.

Weekend rains and possible severe storms

A soggy weekend is developing for much of Minnesota. The moisture is much needed. We’ll see some showers and thunder in northern Minnesota through midday with spotty showers popping up potentially in central Minnesota through the afternoon.

Thunderstorms out of Iowa will then lift north into southern Minnesota Friday evening into the overnight with more storms developing Saturday into Saturday night.

fri-sat precip 9a
Forecast precipitation 9 a.m. Friday through 1 a.m. Sunday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

We’ll need to monitor Saturday afternoon and evening closely as there’s the potential for severe thunderstorms. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) forecast for Saturday in south-central and southwestern Minnesota.

spc risk IA
Severe weather outlook for Saturday into Saturday night
NOAA Storm Prediction Center, via Iowa State University

Thunderstorms complicate forecasting specific rainfall amounts and can cause large variations but overall there’s been a shift in most of the models a bit east in where the heaviest overall rain could fall.

Below is a look at a blend of models, a sort of average from Thursday versus Friday, for weekend total forecast rain.

NBM compare
Comparison of computer model average forecast rainfall from yesterday to today
WeatherBELL Analytics

There’s even a slight risk of excessive rainfall forecast for southern and western Minnesota for Saturday into Saturday night.

Exvess rain
Excessive rain outlook for Saturday into Saturday night
NOAA Weather Prediction Center