A potent springlike storm system will swirl over Minnesota for the weekend and into Monday. While the sun angle is much lower than it was in the spring, this storm looks strong enough to generate significant rainfall without so much solar help.
For the rest of Saturday:
· Welcome rain will continue to spread across Minnesota
· Heavy rain is likely at times, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening
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· Severe storms are possible later Saturday
· The likely window for strong storms in the Twin Cities is between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m.
As we get into later morning, strong thunderstorms with heavy rain have been spreading northeastward from southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Radar shows who is getting soaked at 10:30 a.m. Saturday.
Also note on the above radar image that isolated showers and thunderstorms are brewing over southwestern Minnesota. That area will see much thunderstorm development as we head into Saturday afternoon. Storms will continue to blossom and track northeastward.
Twin Cities storms
The Twin Cities will probably begin getting thunderstorms by late afternoon and into the evening. Expect several hours of rain. Heavy rain is possible at times.
Afternoon high temperatures should be mainly from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The Twin Cities should reach the mid 70s before afternoon storms. Dew points will be muggy and the wind will become strong and gusty from the southeast.
Severe storms possible
An updated slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been posted for later Saturday and Saturday night from southwestern Minnesota into the southwest metro. Damaging wind and hail and even a tornado are possible, even though we are in late September. A marginal (level 1) risk surrounds the slight risk. Storms are likely to weaken overnight as they track farther northeast.
Significant rain likely
Rainfall amounts by Monday are likely to reach 1 to 2 inches for most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some spots could easily pick up 2 to 3 inches with repeated storms. I think the Twin Cities will probably be in the 1- to 2-inch range. But few rainfall forecasts are sure bets in this drought year.
Turning dry Tuesday and getting warm again
Dry weather will arrive on Tuesday and bring several pleasant days. High temperatures will run warmer than normal as we sneak up on October.