Stormy start to the week, part of an active pattern

Excessive rainfall and severe weather are possible Tuesday

Forecast total rainfall through early Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Updated: May 20, 9 a.m. | Posted: May 19, 5:05 p.m.

The first of multiple rounds of rain and thunder this week is wrapping up early Monday. More thunder is possible south late Monday with severe weather possible Tuesday. 

More storms ahead with potential severe weather Tuesday

There will be lingering showers especially in northern Minnesota Monday morning. Some peeks of afternoon sun break out in southern Minnesota. With a little sun, spotty storms could redevelop in southern Minnesota Monday afternoon.

mon precip 6a
Forecast precipitation 7 a.m. Monday through 4 a.m. Tuesday
College of DuPage weather lab

Helping to contribute to an unsettled day are higher dew points. They’ll remain around a sticky 60 degrees.

MON 1p dew
Forecast dew points midday Monday
National Weather Service

There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) that one or two storms could become strong. 

MON svr
Severe weather outlook for Monday into Monday night
National Weather Service

Highs will be in the upper 70s south to mid 60s north Monday afternoon.

mon hi 8a
Forecast highs Monday
National Weather Service

The big focus of the week’s weather is Tuesday. A potent upper-level disturbance and deepening surface low will combine to create a large area of significant rainfall for much of Minnesota, but it could also produce potential severe storms southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

tue-wed prec 8a
Forecast precipitation 4 a.m. Tuesday through 1 p.m. Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for southeastern Minnesota with the Twin Cities included in a slight risk area (level 2 of 5). 

TUE svr
Severe weather outlook Tuesday into Tuesday night
National Weather Service

There will be lots of wind shear to help organize storms into severe storms with the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. It will come down to where we see enough instability develop due to sunshine in southern Minnesota.

There’s a chance the bulk of the severe threat stays just south and east of Minnesota. It will depend largely on what happens with ongoing storms Monday night into Tuesday morning.

We’ll also need to be on the watch for excessive rainfall over 3 inches for some.

heavy rains
Potential for heavy rains through Tuesday night
National Weather Service

A widespread soaking of 2 to 3 inches looks likely for much of Minnesota into early Wednesday.

Forecast total rainfall through early Wednesday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

It’ll be cooler Wednesday with lingering clouds and showers north. Thursday should see a return to more sunshine before another system delivers rain by Friday. 

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