Stormy start to the week, part of an active pattern

Updated: May 20, 9 a.m. | Posted: May 19, 5:05 p.m.

The first of multiple rounds of rain and thunder this week is wrapping up early Monday. More thunder is possible south late Monday with severe weather possible Tuesday. 

More storms ahead with potential severe weather Tuesday

There will be lingering showers especially in northern Minnesota Monday morning. Some peeks of afternoon sun break out in southern Minnesota. With a little sun, spotty storms could redevelop in southern Minnesota Monday afternoon.

Helping to contribute to an unsettled day are higher dew points. They’ll remain around a sticky 60 degrees.

There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) that one or two storms could become strong. 

Highs will be in the upper 70s south to mid 60s north Monday afternoon.

The big focus of the week’s weather is Tuesday. A potent upper-level disturbance and deepening surface low will combine to create a large area of significant rainfall for much of Minnesota, but it could also produce potential severe storms southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening. 

There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for southeastern Minnesota with the Twin Cities included in a slight risk area (level 2 of 5). 

There will be lots of wind shear to help organize storms into severe storms with the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. It will come down to where we see enough instability develop due to sunshine in southern Minnesota.

There’s a chance the bulk of the severe threat stays just south and east of Minnesota. It will depend largely on what happens with ongoing storms Monday night into Tuesday morning.

We’ll also need to be on the watch for excessive rainfall over 3 inches for some.

A widespread soaking of 2 to 3 inches looks likely for much of Minnesota into early Wednesday.

It’ll be cooler Wednesday with lingering clouds and showers north. Thursday should see a return to more sunshine before another system delivers rain by Friday.