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Tuesday’s election resulted in sweeping victories for Republicans across the nation. An initial look at Minnesota’s elections, however, suggests that voters in the North Star State were not so moved. 

The results of many races in the state look strikingly similar to what we saw the last time around. 

About 45 percent of Minnesotans voted for Trump, similar to 2016 and 2020

As expected, Vice President Kamala Harris edged out former President Donald Trump here in Minnesota. 

Despite (or maybe because of, depending on your opinion) the addition of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the Democratic ticket, the result closely mirrored President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Minnesota. Harris’ performance was somewhat stronger than was Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 — but Trump’s performance was also slightly stronger, as fewer Minnesotans voted for third party candidates.

Graph of MN presidential election results in 2024, 2020 & 2016

Incidentally, Harris’ margin of victory in Minnesota was also strikingly similar to 

the 6.5 percent average margin that she had established in the polls

 prior to election night. Whatever the flaws of presidential polls in other states, perhaps they were not so bad here.

About 3 in 5 Minnesotans voted for Sen. Amy Klobuchar — again

In the race for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, this year’s Republican challenger, Royce White, fared better against incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar than Jim Newberger did in the 2018 election. But that four-percentage-point shift had the same result: Minnesota voters have returned the state’s senior senator back to Washington for a fourth consecutive six-year term, again by a substantial, double-digit margin.

graph showing Minnesota's Senate race in 2024 and 2018

Here again it is worth noting that Klobuchar’s margin of victory was very similar to 

her average lead in the polls prior to the election

, especially if you throw out the series of polls coming from a U.K.-based firm that repeatedly polled in Minnesota.

Minnesotans elected a very similar congressional delegation, and by very similar margins

As expected, Minnesota is returning four Republicans and four Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives. In each case, this year’s results were very similar to the 2022 election. That was even the case in the 3rd District, the only one that lacked an incumbent. Voters there sent Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison to Washington by nearly an identical margin to U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips’ victory in 2022.

Graph of Minnesota's Congressional races 2024 compared to 2022

Democrats hold on to the state Senate;  Minnesota House appears deadlocked

With Ann Johnson Stewart’s win in the special election for Minnesota Senate District 45, the DFL retained control of that chamber. In the Minnesota House, however, whether the DFL retained control remained uncertain early Wednesday. 

According to the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office

, Democrats and Republicans appeared to be poised for a 67-67 tie. 

But the AP has yet to call seven of the races

, perhaps because those races are so close that they may automatically trigger a recount. 

The deadlock, or a Republican win in the Minnesota House should a recount move things in that direction, would be one notable change in the state after two years of DFL control of the Legislature.

Graph showing composition of Minnesota's house

And finally — although this is less a result of Minnesota’s voters than it is a result of Republican victories in other states — Tim Walz will remain Minnesota’s governor, after the Democratic presidential ticket’s defeat.

Craig Helmstetter

Author

Tuesday’s election resulted in sweeping victories for Republicans across the nation.  An initial look at Minnesota’s results, however, suggests Minnesotans voted in much the same way that they had in previous elections. 

In Minnesota politics, the more things change, the more they stay the same

Go Deeper.

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