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President Trump says illegal street fentanyl is one of the main justifications for 

 he plans to impose against Canada, China and Mexico on Tuesday. A 

 issued by the White House describes the synthetic opioid as fueling a "national emergency" that warranted tough action.

Experts say the reality is far more complex.

President Trump and his team misstate key facts about the fentanyl crisis

 foreign drug cartels are "killing 250,000 [or] 300,000 American people per year." On Friday, White House spokesperson 

 tariffs are warranted because fentanyl has "killed tens of millions of Americans."

While the overdose epidemic is a serious crisis, experts in law enforcement, drug policy research and public health agree street drugs have killed vastly fewer people.  

During the most severe period of the opioid crisis, in 2022 and 2023, total overdose deaths — including fentanyl, methamphetamines, heroin, cocaine and all other drugs — 

peaked at around 114,000 fatalities per year

. And while drug overdose deaths have been wrenching for many families, fentanyl deaths haven't come close to killing tens of millions of people.

State and federal data also shows the crisis was improving at an unprecedented pace before these tariffs were announced. Fatal overdoses from fentanyl and all other street drugs 

have plummeted nationally by more than 21%

latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

, falling below 90,000 deaths in a 12-month period for the first time in roughly half a decade.  

What role does Canada play in the U.S. fentanyl supply?

Almost none. In its fact sheet, the Trump administration says Canada has a "growing footprint" in narcotics distribution with Mexican cartels active in the country. But law enforcement and drug policy experts agree that Canada plays a minimal role in fentanyl smuggling into the U.S. 

remarks Saturday night, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

 said smuggling from Canada contributes less than 1% of the fentanyl street supply in the U.S. 

Data from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration

In 2024, only about 43 pounds of fentanyl was seized at America's northern border. That compares with roughly 21,100 pounds seized at the southern border.

Before these tariffs were announced, Canadian law enforcement had already moved to 

target and crack down on fentanyl producers

, hoping to curb the overdose crisis occurring in their own country.

What role does Mexico play in the U.S. fentanyl supply?

The White House fact sheet says "the Mexican drug trafficking organizations have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico."  

It's widely accepted that drug cartels in Mexico produce the vast majority of street fentanyl flowing into the U.S. The previous Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 

adopted a controversial "hugs not bullets"

 approach to drug gangs. Most cartel experts say they have managed to corrupt many government officials. 

But under current Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, 

cooperation with U.S. law enforcement officials

 targeting the cartels and their finances. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, the amount of fentanyl seized by the U.S. on the southern border plunged last year 

potency of fentanyl pills also declined sharply

What role does China play in the U.S. fentanyl supply?

Law enforcement agencies and government officials in the U.S. agree most of the so-called precursor chemicals used to make street fentanyl flow from industrial companies in China to drug gangs in Mexico. For years, China's government infuriated U.S. officials by 

resisting efforts to target and disrupt this supply chain

Under pressure from the Biden administration, however, Chinese officials 

, helped crack down on money laundering by drug organizations and made some arrests.  

By October 2024, a growing number of U.S. officials and experts on fentanyl smuggling told NPR these measures were finally 

 reaching American streets, making the drug harder to find. 

In a statement, China's foreign ministry said U.S. tariffs scheduled to go into effect on Tuesday will undermine cooperation against drug trafficking.   

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Brian Mann

Author

The White House says fentanyl smuggled to the U.S. justifies tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico. But fentanyl deaths and smuggling have been dropping fast — and Canada plays almost no role.

Trump used fentanyl to justify tariffs, but the crisis was already easing

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