Severe storms possible Monday with a warmer, active week ahead

Severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening — part of an active pattern this week. It will also be considerably warmer and humid. Heat may be building the end of the week. 

Multiple storm chances this week with a severe threat Monday 

After an unusually cool weekend, Monday will be much warmer and humid. Highs will be in the 80s across southern Minnesota Monday afternoon.

Dew points will also be some of the highest we’ve seen yet this year with low 70s across south-central Minnesota by afternoon and evening. The combination of heat and humidity will create an unstable late day atmosphere. 

There will be some ongoing morning storms that will continue to move east and mainly fizzle out, then some midday sun with temperatures warming up.

Late afternoon and evening storms develop in central and southern Minnesota ahead of an advancing cool front that will then track east.

To be frank, today is a low confidence forecast with the morning storms and forecast models not handling much of it very well. The severe risk is conditional on how much sun we can get this afternoon.

There’s an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms Monday afternoon and evening. All severe threats are possible: isolated tornadoes and, in particular, large hail with damaging winds. There’s the potential for golf ball size hail with the late afternoon and evening storms.

As mentioned, how many severe storms and how strong will depend on what areas can get the most sun and avoid the morning storms keeping things stable.  

Tuesday will be cooler, with highs mostly in the 70s behind the cool front. 

There will be some isolated to spotty showers Tuesday, mainly across southern Minnesota, closer to the slow-to-advance cool front and some isolated pop-up activity in central or northern Minnesota.

We remain in an active pattern the rest of the week with showers and thunder possible almost each day somewhere in the state. The key word is “unsettled.” The difference from last week though is that activity this week will be more summery and convective versus cool, cloudy and showery.

We’ll have some sun and warm temperatures during the day and storms that build later in the day. Timing out each disturbance is difficult and confidence is low in storm chances and timing farther out this week. 

Heat could be building in for the end of the week and weekend. Highs could be near 90 degrees in southern Minnesota by Friday and Saturday.