Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Drought quadruples in size across Minnesota in the past week

A hopeful, more active pattern develops next week

drought 10-09
Latest Minnesota drought conditions, posted Thursday
National Drought Mitigation Center

After eliminating drought in the state in mid-July, drought crept back into northern Minnesota last week and has expanded significantly in the past seven days. 

Drought and dry conditions expanded significantly in the past week 

If you’re in northern Minnesota and thinking it’s starting to get a bit dry and “crispy,” you are not imagining it.

Areas of moderate drought expanded from 3 percent of Minnesota last week to 12 percent. Areas considered at least abnormally dry expanded from 35 percent last week to now a majority of Minnesota — 57 percent. 

drought 10-09
Minnesota drought conditions report, posted Thursday
National Drought Mitigation Center

When we compare last week’s drought conditions report on Oct. 2 to this week’s, we can see on the maps below that expansion across north-central Minnesota.

A big culprit was the record heat and wind we saw last week. Most of the state saw record-high temperatures, sunshine and strong winds over the weekend. Those conditions quickly dry out soil moisture. 

drought compare 10-09
Comparison of last week's drought monitor to this week's
National Drought Mitigation Center

The hot, dry weather is one thing, but we’ve also seen little rainfall over the past 30 to 60 days in many parts of Minnesota.

The map below shows 60-day precipitation anomalies (departures from normal). Most of the drought-stricken areas are behind by as much as 3 to 4 inches of rainfall. 

60day rain
60-day precipitation anomalies (departure from normal)
WeatherBELL Analytics

The glimmer of hope is that it appears we will enter into a more active pattern next week. A more widespread chance of rain develops Sunday into Sunday night with another system later next week, followed by potentially a couple of other ones into the following week. 

EUR
Forecast precipitation through October 23
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts via Pivotal Weather

Cooler temperatures and cloudier skies will also help limit additional moisture loss from the soils next week.