Cooler but still well above normal this week

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A pair of solar flares is headed toward Earth and could touch off a magnificent show of auroras Tuesday evening and overnight across Minnesota. 

Potential for a good light show Tuesday night

If things align properly, we could be in for a good light show across much of the region Tuesday evening and overnight. 

A few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or solar flares left the sun’s surface Monday and early Tuesday morning and are flying toward Earth. It could become a rare “cannibal CME.” This occurs when two (or more) of these storm clouds merge into one large one. 

The latest flare early Tuesday came from sunspot 4274:

This last happened on April 15, creating brilliant shows visible far south. We forecast the potential intensity of a solar storm by the KP index. 

Below is a map of how far south auroras can be visible given the forecast KP index. The higher the index, the more energy and the farther south lights can be seen. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a KP index of 7.3 peaking at 9 p.m. to midnight Tuesday night. This equates to auroras being visible everywhere in Minnesota where skies are clear: 

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has recently upgraded us midday Tuesday to a G4 (severe) watch for geomagnetic storms. A KP index of 8 or higher is typically possible with G4 activity: 

Of course space weather is one thing, weather closer to Earth’s surface is another. Will the skies cooperate in Minnesota? Yes and no. 

Clouds look to linger much of Tuesday evening in northeastern Minnesota while places like the Twin Cities should have a clear window into the early overnight before some high cirrus clouds move in. 

Those high clouds would make lights like the auroras more hazy and difficult to see. Clear skies are ideal. 

The nice thing this time of year is that the sun sets at 4:48 p.m. Tuesday. Look to the skies anytime after 5:30 p.m. preferably away from city lights in open areas. We may not have to wait late in the night like we often do. 

Weather and Climate News

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Sven Sundgaard

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A pair of solar flares is headed toward Earth and could touch off a magnificent show of auroras Tuesday evening and overnight across Minnesota. 


Potential northern lights Tuesday evening

University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute

Purple and green aurora while the sun's glow is visible 

Potential northern lights Tuesday evening

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