CEO of U.S. Bancorp weighs in on the economy, tariffs and AI
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Headquartered in Minneapolis, U.S. Bank is the fifth largest commercial bank in the country with approximately 70,000 employees and more than 2,000 branches in 26 states. Gunjan Kedia joined the bank in 2016 after a long career in financial services and she became chief executive officer in April 2025. Financial institutions like U.S. Bank generate the kind of data and information that gives insight into the economy. (Think credit card services, home loans and small business relationships.)
In a wide-ranging conversation at an event sponsored by University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management, I spoke with Kedia about the economy, artificial intelligence, the global labor market and more — much more.
A couple of themes stood out. Looking at the near-term economy, consumers are in decent shape financially. Yet people are also anxious and cautious given concerns about tariffs, inflation, monetary policy, geopolitical events and the reordering of global trade.
“We are watching both here so, on the core consumer, when we actually look through our credit card businesses and see what they are buying and whether they are buying the way they used to,” she says. “The patterns look good, and that’s slightly different, of course, for the affluent, that’s doing very well. The wealth effect of the stock market and housing has been very positive for the upper end of society, but even for the less affluent, the spend levels are holding up. But the sentiment is not.”
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The concern is that negative sentiments could eventually overpower consumer resilience. Kedia sees the same dichotomy in corporate America, especially with small business.
“Where goes small business goes America. They have always been the largest employer in our country, and since COVID-19, you see numbers ranging from six to seven out of every 10 jobs are created by small business,” she says. “The story is exactly the same. The sentiment is quite cautious. I would say that the creation and the resurgence of small business after the COVID shock has been healthy and it’s still holding up.”
What about tariffs? The impact on the economy hasn’t been as big as feared back in April when President Trump announced huge tariff hikes on many nations. But the actual numbers haven’t been as high as feared (or announced). What’s more, business has creatively adjusted their tactics and strategies.
“Most businesses have figured out mitigating initiatives and strategies, and they take the form of rerouting supply chain,” she says. “So if the direct draft tariff from Brazil to here is too high, you’re going to send your coffee beans through a different country. Or they have figured out pricing strategies, or they have negotiated with suppliers or reshaped and to some extent, they have brought jobs back onshore, which is the administration's priority.”
Inflation remains a deep worry. The concerns about affordability are real. The sense is growing among consumers that price increases are here to stay. For example, high interest rates are hurting the housing market. “The cost of capital is very high, so affordability is a policy question, it’s an economic question, and ultimately, it’s a societal stability question. No society has survived sustained periods of despair with the larger population,” she says. “So affordable housing will need to have a policy answer. Healthcare is progressing to become the next big government shutdown showdown again. Other than oil, which is behaving after a long time of misbehaving, everything else is stressing households.”
OK, so what is holding up the economy? Why hasn’t the economy sunk into a recession? In essence, the job market is good enough to keep the economy chugging along.
“But all things considered, while the sentiment does not feel good around jobs, people have jobs, and the jobs are paying enough that they are able to live, and that is sort of the explaining variable for why, why we are not seeing the impact of inflation, not seeing the impact of sort of tariffs truly translate to a sort of a hard landing or a recessionary time.”
Like other major economywide technological innovations, the rise and spread of artificial intelligence will have a major impact on business and everyday life. In the short run, the focus will be on jobs lost. Yet the AI engine will also create many jobs. In the background to this perspective is an appreciation of a profound shift in the job market.
Over the past half-century or more, the labor market expanded enormously. Women entered the job market in large numbers. Workers in China, India and other countries participated in the global economy. Technological innovations allowed globalization to spread.
Looking ahead, tight labor markets will become commonplace. Fertility rates are falling in much of the world. Countries are closing their borders to immigrants. Labor force growth has slowed dramatically. Organizations will be looking for workers to hire.
“You may not be doing the job that you think you’re applying to, but you’ll be doing some job because we are a labor-constrained world,” she said. “We are in our labor shortage world, And AI, I think, will replace enough. So, if you’re an intelligent, functioning, competent human worker, I think you should feel optimistic about your prospects.”
Kedia’s the first woman CEO at U.S. Bank and, of Indian descent, she’s also a woman of color. She hopes to ease the path for others traditionally excluded from consideration for the top job.
“Because, you know, there’s a lot of societal influences that hold people back from giving minorities or women or anybody who feels unfamiliar to the caricature that is in the role in the past a chance,” she said. “My personal view is: It's important. Each appointment matters, and success in each appointment makes it that much easier. So hopefully, in no time at all, this will not be newsworthy.”
Amen to that.
Click the audio player above to hear the full conversation, recorded on Dec. 2, 2025.
