Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Arctic outbreak on the way: What it means and how to prepare

Dangerous wind chills pose frostbite threat within minutes

Prepare for extreme cold
Prepare for extreme cold
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Extreme cold warnings and watches are in effect across parts of the region as an arctic air outbreak brings dangerous wind chills capable of causing frostbite on exposed skin within minutes. Here’s how to best prepare for the incoming cold.

Coldest air in years is on the way

There’s no doubt about it: Some of the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are on the way. A brutal chunk of arctic air is breaking off and set to plunge southward during the second half of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend.

Arctic air will pour into the region on gusty northwest winds, bringing the coldest stretch of weather many have seen in years. Temperatures high in the atmosphere are expected to drop to levels not seen since January 2019, setting the stage for dangerously frigid conditions at the surface.

You can see in the graphics below a chunk of arctic air (shown in white) rotating southward, moving over the state starting Thursday, with some of the coldest air expected Thursday night through Saturday.

850 millibar potential temperature for 6 a.m. Thursday
850 millibar potential temperature for 6 a.m. Thursday
University at Albany-Alicia Bentley
850 millibar potential temperature for 6 p.m. Thursday
850 millibar potential temperature for 6 p.m. Thursday
University at Albany-Alicia Bentley

Temperatures will fall below zero in the Twin Cities Thursday afternoon and are expected to stay below zero until midday Sunday.

In northern Minnesota, readings will drop below zero as early as Wednesday evening and remain subzero for more than 100 hours, lasting through midday Monday.

Twin Cities temperatures Thursday through Wednesday
Twin Cities temperatures Thursday through Wednesday
NOAA Impact-Based Decision Support Services forecast points

By late Thursday night into Friday morning, wind chills are expected to reach dangerously low levels as bitter arctic air spreads across the region.

In the Northland, wind chills could drop as low as 50 below zero while readings in the Twin Cities metro area are expected to fall between 25 and 35 below zero.

Minimum wind chill forecast Thursday through Saturday
Minimum wind chill forecast Thursday through Saturday
National Weather Service

Extreme cold watches and warnings will cover much of the Upper Midwest starting Wednesday night in northern Minnesota and continuing through Saturday. In southern Minnesota, the extreme cold warnings are expected to take effect later, beginning Thursday night.

cold
Extreme cold warnings, watches and cold weather advisories Wednesday night into Saturday
National Weather Service

Cold weather alerts: What they mean

The National Weather Service issues different types of cold weather alerts to let people know how dangerous the cold can be and what steps to take to stay safe. Here’s what each type of cold weather alert means:

  • Extreme cold watch. Issued when life-threatening cold temperatures or wind chills are possible in the next day or two. Preparations should begin, and it may be necessary to adjust plans to limit time spent outdoors.

  • Extreme cold warning. Issued when there is a high potential for temperatures of 5 degrees or lower, regardless of expected wind speeds. It signals that people should take immediate action such as staying inside if possible, dressing in layers, and covering any exposed skin. Frostbite and hypothermia could develop quickly.

  • Cold weather advisory. Used for cold temperatures that are still hazardous but not extreme enough to reach warning criteria. Issued for temperatures of 15 degrees or lower but remaining above warning criteria of 5 degrees, regardless of expected wind speeds.

Extreme Cold Watch and Warning
Extreme Cold Watch and Warning
National Weather Service

When cold weather alerts are issued, it is important to take precautions to prevent life-threatening conditions such as hypothermia and frostbite. Dressing appropriately is essential for staying safe during extreme conditions.

Dressing for cold weather
Dressing for cold weather
National Weather Service

Layering clothing helps trap heat, while hats, scarves, and gloves protect extremities where heat loss occurs most quickly. Covering all exposed skin is crucial as frostbite can develop in minutes when temperatures drop far below freezing.

Frostbite and hypothermia are serious risks during this arctic outbreak. Frostbite can develop in just minutes when wind chills reach these extreme levels. The deeper blue areas on the chart indicate wind chills that could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

Wind chill chart
Wind chill chart
National Weather Service

Hypothermia occurs when the body loses heat faster than it can produce it, leading to shivering, confusion, slurred speech and extreme fatigue, and can be life-threatening if not treated.

To stay safe, cover all exposed skin, wearing layers, staying dry, and limiting time spent outdoors.

Frostbite and hypothermia
Frostbite and hypothermia
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Stay inside and stay warm, Minnesota!