Minnesota experiences third quarter drop in exports
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Minnesota’s exports were down nearly 14 percent or $964 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to a year prior. That's according to data released by the state Department of Employment and Economic Development or DEED.
“The U.S. as a whole actually increased exports in that third quarter,” DEED economic analysis director Neal Young said. “Minnesota's exports were down, primarily because of weak sales of mineral fuel and oil to Canada."
Young said Canada is the state's largest trading partner. And the loss of trade revenue with them was significant.
"Minnesota exported about $16 million in mineral fuel and oil which was a big decline. Down over $500 million from the third quarter of 2024," he said.
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Young said exports to Minnesota’s second and third largest trading partners, Mexico and China, also struggled, declining by about 20 percent each during the third quarter of 2025.
DEED Commissioner Matt Varilek offered some insights into what caused state exports to drop.
“Federally imposed tariffs and strained international relations with our traditional partners also continue to impact Minnesota’s trade with our biggest export markets,” he said. “Despite these challenges, we continue to assure our international partners that Minnesota is open for business.”
On the bright side, DEED reported sales to Europe were robust, up 7 percent or $1.3 billion. And Minnesota businesses also saw strong gains in the Middle East and Africa.
State markets that showed resilience despite the downturns were electrical equipment and aircraft/spacecraft. According to DEED fertilizers, dairy, eggs, honey and miscellaneous edible preparations also showed notable export growth.
Young said more time is needed to see if the downturn in state exports of mineral fuel and oil will continue.
“Just because it has been very volatile, with both upswings and downswings,” he said. “So it's really hard to say that this is a larger trend until we've had two months consecutively of mineral fuel and oil being negative contributors to growth.”
DEED’s next export report for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be released by mid-March.
