Updraft special: Summer outlook for Minnesota

Towards the end of each month, the Climate Prediction Center puts out its new 90 day outlook. That trend looks like a vintage lava lamp of colorful blobs drawn across America, and uses broader long-range trends to estimate things like drought or warm spells, and lengthy cooldowns. The ‘meteorological summer’ version is fresh out this week, for June-August.

What does it show for Minnesota? Well nothing really for temperatures. Minnesota is ‘equal chances,’ which in theory means pretty normal temperatures. What’s more compelling is the drier-than-normal prediction for all of Minnesota, one of a few spots across the country that fall into this.

Often, when we get a stronger El Niño, the subtropical jet stream dives south. It curls around a broad Pacific and Gulf duo of troughs, and dips under the Canada/Minnesota high pressure zone. The jet stream is a real-life river of upper level winds on which many storms travel. If there was a semi-permanent blocking feature, we could expect fewer storms. Of course it only takes a single storm to dump rain on us, so these trend lines are not always the most reliable predictor of future weather. What does the MPR weather team have to say about the new 90 day outlook, farming, and El Niño?

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard: “I take any forecast calling for ‘equal chances’ or odds of cooler summer temps with a grain of salt for sure as 20 of the last 26 summers (77 percent) have all been above normal in the Twin Cities… we don’t necessarily see extreme heat like in other parts of the country but we’re seeing consistently warmer summers… my anecdotal theory is that there’s just much less cool air in Canada. 30+ years ago we’d routinely get nice breaks of 70s in the summer… that rarely happens anymore… so rather than more 90 degree days (which that trendline is flat): we’re seeing less cooler days, to balance out averages in summer…”

Meteorologist Mandy Thalhuber: As of May 18, 86 percent of Minnesota’s corn crop had been planted, well ahead of last year’s 74 percent pace and just shy of the recent five-year average of 90 percent. Soybean planting also moved quickly, reaching 74 percent complete compared to the five-year average of 53 percent and slightly behind last year’s 77 percent. Favorable spring field conditions have allowed corn and soybean farmers to make rapid planting progress across much of the state.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center 90-day outlook for Minnesota calls for equal chances of above, near, or below-normal temperatures, while precipitation trends lean toward below-normal across much of the state.

Strong early planting progress has set the stage for the season, but now that momentum runs into a more uncertain summer weather pattern. With temperatures showing equal chances of being above, near, or below normal, and precipitation leaning drier than average, it really comes down to how the rainfall plays out through the summer. The difference between good and tough crop conditions may simply be whether timely rains show up when the crop needs them most.

Chief Meteorologist Ben Cathey: “As a meteorologist and numbers geek, I love getting new maps in, especially for longer-range forecasting. We wait for the CPC - or at least I do - 90 day outlook like it’s Christmas morning. Embarrassing? For the drought extending forecast of drier-than-normal summer conditions across all of Minnesota, it’s questionable. The data (we call this an analog) of matching El Niño conditions actually shows a little more moisture above Minnesota, though it’s not necessarily a huge trend. We’re almost past the ‘spring predictability barrier’ that can hurt ENSO accuracy. A strong El Niño is on the way but we may not have bigger impacts from that until winter 2026/2027.