Tornado Watch, three rounds of strong storms ahead

Quick timing of stronger storms:

Wednesday: 5:00-6:30 p.m. and after 11:00 p.m.

Thursday: Before 3:00 a.m. in the southwest, then again after 4:00 p.m. until about 8:00 p.m. in the middle of Minnesota

Friday: Later afternoon to evening, mostly in far southeastern Minnesota and far southwestern Wisconsin

Happy Wednesday! Most of the day will be simply stunning across Minnesota, with abundant sunshine and above-average warmth through the evening. Winds pick up through the afternoon, and highs are generally in the lower 80s.

UPDATE at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday: Five Minnesota Counties are under a Tornado Watch. That means that an isolated storm could produce a tornado along the squall line but that there is no imminent threat for tornadoes. This Watch goes until 11:00 p.m. for now, though the northern counties will likely be dropped well before that. Traverse, Clay, Wilkins, Norman, and Big Stone are the counties included. Note that this is coming in two batches, one from 5:00-7:00 p.m. and the other after 11:00 p.m.

Despite that, thunderstorms are not far off. A few thunderstorms are here in the northwestern corner of the state on Wednesday afternoon, but they look to fade before running into the Boundary Waters. They’ll be with us later Wednesday night in the western part of the state. For most, the rain gets here after midnight. For those in the drought-stricken northeastern edge of Minnesota, the rain amounts look to be really low. The ‘night one’ bullseye for severe weather potential is right around the MN/ND/SD border. We’re likely to have a big burst of straight-line winds coming off of the Sisseton Hills, moving east and southeast towards Buffalo Ridge in far southwestern Minnesota closer to midnight.

These storms bring rain, which is great, and the winds should be weakening somewhat, which is also great. These storms could also wake you up around the Twin Cities heading into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.

Then we do it all over again on Thursday afternoon into the evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms rocket out of the Dakotas, in a line that’s basically west-to-east. These are training thunderstorms, which means they go over the same ground repeatedly. Standing water or some low-lying flooding is possible Thursday, with the first solid round of severe weather potential in Minnesota over the last few weeks.

Storms sit with us for a third day in a row on Friday! This time around, the severe risk is primarily over southeastern Minnesota (effectively right over the Driftless Region). The bigger afternoon threat this time is the hail and straight line winds. In the case of each day, we cannot rule out a quick ‘spin up’ type tornado, which often doesn’t appear much different than typical higher end wind damage. Supercellular structure is not the primary issue the next few days.

Right now, the weekend forecast is looking a little quieter and generally comfortable. Following a few days of rain and warmth, our gardens are looking good; this should be a great window for many to get outside on the lakes. The larger stories next week are a) how much will drought expand in northeastern Minnesota, b) what will the wildfire risk be in the same area, and c) where will the 90 degree temperatures set up starting next Wednesday? Heat is really starting to build in later in the week!