Two rounds of severe weather in the next 24 hours

The fog broke, the sunshine emerged, and we’re off to the 90s for one of the first times this year. The big story is still the two rounds of severe weather happening across Minnesota on Wednesday. Following those storms, we get a pretty intense cool-down by summer standards. That comes with some regular rain showers Thursday followed by a more tranquil stretch.

We have a Heat Advisory and Dense Fog Advisory in place, both nearby in northern Minnesota, plus and Air Quality Alert for a ‘code orange’ in Tuesday’s heat. Can’t remember the last time – if ever – I’ve seen all three of those in the same state at once. For most of Minnesota’s acres, we’ve got intense sunshine and highs reaching for 90 degrees. That will lead to higher ozone levels, plus the heat index is going to be in the lower 90s for several hours Tuesday afternoon. While it is possible that a few showers form in the southwest corner of the state, it’s fairly unlikely.

Onto the main event of the forecast: two rounds of potentially-damaging severe storms on Wednesday. The good news is that the timing is consistent run to run – on our computer tools. We don’t want to be doing the ‘windshield wiper’ thing, where storms speed up or slowdown and it makes this confusing for everyone.

Midnight – 3:00 a.m. Wednesday: a severe line of thunderstorms rolls into the western side of Minnesota. This could be a couple hundred miles long squall line. Damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and large hail are all threats here.

3:00 a.m. – 6:00 a.m. Wednesday: the line, still strong-to-severe moves into St. Cloud, Rochester, Austin, the Twin Cities, and eventually Duluth. Most get heavy rain with this line. The storms are *mostly* wrapped up by the traditional morning commute in these cities BUT there will be places with standing water. May want to leave the house earlier!

6:00 a.m. - 8:00 a.m. Wednesday: Sven Sundgaard is on early Wednesday to walk you through the initial round’s exit to the east in Wisconsin and the Great Lakes. We expect slower morning commutes in eastern Minnesota, especially around the I-35 corridor.

8:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. Wednesday: Storms are gone and we’ll skyrocket up in temperatures as the sun emerges. We should end up feeling like the middle 90s, with dew points in the 70s in southern Minnesota, even up into the Twin Cities! Don’t forget to pack the rain jacket, but the sunshine won’t last much longer.

2:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. Wednesday: storms re-fire in central Minnesota and these are more discrete supercells that turn into a bowing line. Straight line winds are the bigger issue here but these storms can also produce ping pong sized hail. Once again, expect a slower drive home and torrential downpours.

After that, there will be a few cooler rain showers on Thursday. Temps fall roughly 15 degrees from their peak levels earlier in the week. Locally, Friday-Sunday should be really nice. That said, there could be severe weather in southern Iowa on Saturday. ‘Tis the season for unsettled weather!