El Niño returns: NOAA issues advisory as ocean warming signals a potentially powerful event

NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Climate Prediction Center announced that El Niño conditions have developed across the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the upcoming winter of 2026-27.

El Niño officially returns

The climate pattern known as El Niño has officially returned according to NOAA.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average for an extended period. It is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring cycle that influences weather patterns around the globe.

The latest El Niño /southern oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion announced that El Niño conditions have developed across the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the upcoming winter of 2026-27.

Over the past month, sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have warmed above average, crossing the threshold that meteorologists use to declare El Niño conditions.

What has really caught our attention is the potential magnitude of the event. NOAA currently estimates a 63% probability that El Niño reaches "very strong" status during the November-January period.

Meteorologists classify El Niño events into four main categories based on how much warmer than average the waters of the central tropical Pacific become: weak, moderate, strong, and very strong.

You may also hear the term “Super El Niño” thrown around in the news, but that’s not an official category. It’s simply a media nickname often used to describe the most intense El Niño events.

This event could rank among the strongest El Niño episodes in the historical record dating back to 1950. The 2015–2016 El Niño was a particularly strong event, and maps of sea surface temperature anomalies from that winter show a clear signal of very strong warming across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

It’s important to remember that a stronger El Niño doesn’t guarantee specific weather impacts everywhere. Instead, it makes the usual El Niño patterns more likely and often more noticeable. In simple terms, the stronger the event, the more it tends to influence weather patterns around the world.

If we take a look at the latest forecast guidance for December through February, a few classic El Niño signals are already starting to show up.

The CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System Version 2) seasonal precipitation outlook leans toward wetter-than-average conditions across much of the Southwest, Gulf Coast, and the southern tier of the United States. At the same time, it favors drier-than-average conditions across portions of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the northern tier.

That’s a pretty textbook El Niño precipitation pattern.

Of course, it's important to remember that this is a seasonal outlook, not a forecast for every storm between now and February. Think of it as a look at the bigger picture rather than the day-to-day details.

Not every storm will follow the typical El Niño playbook, and some areas may end up wetter or drier than forecast. But when we zoom out and look at the overall pattern, the guidance is showing exactly what we'd expect to see from a strengthening El Niño as we head into winter.

Where do we go from here?

Now that El Niño is officially in place, the big question is just how strong it becomes over the next several months. Right now, all signs point toward continued strengthening through late summer, fall, and into the winter of 2026-27. If the current forecasts hold, we could be looking at one of the strongest El Niño events we've seen in decades.

The next ENSO diagnostics discussion from NOAA is scheduled for July 9, and it will give us our next official look at how this event is evolving.

For now, the takeaway is pretty straightforward: El Niño has arrived, and the odds favor a stronger event as we head toward winter.