Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Southeastern Minnesota severe threat next few hours

HRRR map of storms this evening
The map shows the pinwheeling complex of dark and heavy storms rolling in through Wednesday afternoon.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via College of DuPage weather lab

Scattered storms and a brief severe risk are possible Wednesday in southern Minnesota, followed by cooler, unsettled weather through the week.

Needed rain, severe storm potential

Some of you may be thinking: rain rain, go away! We’re almost to July but temperatures have been more along an April trend as of late.

That said, we really need the rain in some parts of the state and more is coming for some areas through Wednesday night. There is also a brief window for severe storms in southeastern Minnesota for cities including Austin, Rochester and up to the Twin Cities.

Areas to watch later Wednesday
This highlighted area shows some instability in the sunshine for Minnesota's southeastern corner, timed for mid to late afternoon Wednesday. These storms could produce pretty large hail.
Sven Sundgaard | MPR News
Here's the matching mesoscale briefing to our storm track
This is a mesoscale discussion for Wednesday afternoon. By comparison, our severe chance is much lower than central Illinois into Indiana but well need to watch the area in this blue oval.
National Weather Service

Hail is the biggest severe threat through Wednesday afternoon. The strong updrafts and lower freezing levels are a rough recipe if there is any better instability out there south of Minneapolis and St. Paul before dusk.

There will also be torrential downpours and thus some traffic snags through the afternoon drive home from work.

There is also a severe thunderstorm watch listed for the southern end of the Twin Cities, southward toward Owatonna, Rochester and Red Wing. Later Wednesday night we could start to see some fog forming.

By Thursday, a few lingering wraparound showers may persist, but widespread rainfall is not expected. Beyond that, the overall weather pattern remains somewhat unsettled through the weekend as the upper-level trough remains parked over the region.

Bullseye of June rain is in central MN
The bull's-eye for rainfall this June has been along the Interstate 94 corridor, with much less in northeastern and southwestern parts of Minnesota. Those two areas will remain in drought.
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network

Confidence in the forecast decreases later in the week with weather models showing differing solutions regarding additional rain chances. For now, expect periodic opportunities for showers mixed with extended dry periods.

Temperatures will remain comfortably cool for mid-June, with highs generally holding in the low to mid-70s through the end of the week and into the weekend. Into next week, there are now higher signs of downpours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Cooler weather towards the end of the forecast
This shows a cooler trend from next Tuesday towards the following weekend.
National Weather Service