More agreement on storm timing next weekend
Enjoy Monday's quiet stretch before two waves of rain
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Happy Father’s Day and welcome to summer 2026; nothing quite says summery weather and a long weekend at the lake like near-record-low temperatures in several spots in northern Minnesota.
There are still a few showers south and west of the Minnesota River through around dusk Sunday. That’s the part of the state that needs rain the most, so that’s some great longer-term news, even if it was dreary and cooler there on a holiday.
Monday is even drier, with highs close to 80 degrees. This is what we’ll call the “pick day” of the week, with lots of sunshine and lower humidity.
There is very, very little chance of rain, except perhaps near Fargo and Moorhead. Winds are fairly light as well on Monday, but Tuesday brings about a brief pattern change. An Upper Midwest storm comes in, starting with some rain during the morning for northwestern Minnesota.
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The system moves east through the day — yet again largely skipping over the southwestern side of the state. Rain for the Interstate 35 region, including Rochester, Red Wing and the Twin Cities, is mostly after the evening commute timeframe.
The point is, for much of the day, a good chunk of Minnesota should remain dry, but rain is coming. The delayed rain should allow temps to climb a little higher, with a southern wind advecting more humidity in from the Corn Belt.
As I learned many years ago, there’s a meteorologist adage that goes, “Weatherman’s woe, beware the upper low.” That cold pool up in the clouds lingers behind the Tuesday storm, setting up a central Great Lakes spin cycle. That could spawn a few chilly rain showers at any point from Wednesday until early Friday. The weather will also be a little cooler (mid-70s) than the raw weather maps are projecting.
We remain in the “area to watch” for the heavier thunderstorms and general rain next Friday until Sunday. At the moment, the American maps are coming back into phase (agreement) with the European maps. Both tend to keep the rain plugged into Sunday, but now especially next Monday.
