Upward trend for Tuesday's rain amounts

From a piercing blue sky to an upward trend in Tuesday rainfall amounts, more summery heat for the first time in two weeks and some thunderstorms, we’ve got a little something for every weather taste this week.

Showers, isolated thunderstorms Tuesday

Today is a pick-of-the-week day, an opportunity to get outside for as long as possible without inclement weather.

Because humidity is even lower than the last few days — there is a high pressure dome over Minnesota — we can more easily warm to a high near 80 degrees. That’s a little bit below average.

Tuesday brings some more promising rain for most of the state with heavier amounts than were forecast last week. The showers and isolated thunderstorms materialize mid to late morning, coming out of the Dakotas.

Expect showers in the Interstate 35 corridor, including the Twin Cities and suburbs, by early to midafternoon. Rain should continue through the evening commute.

Minnesota needs the rain. Much of north-central Minnesota remains in moderate to severe drought, according to last week’s drought conditions map.

We go into the spin cycle of cold air aloft across the Great Lakes Wednesday through early Friday. Traditionally, we’re a little cooler than the models may suggest, so I imagine we’ll be right around 70 degrees later in the workweek.

While Wednesday is mainly dry, Thursday and Friday could see a few showers with an ominous sky overhead at times.

Heavier rain possible next week

The rain that looks really heavy is slightly delayed until early next week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center moved our risk for flooding rains until June 29 through July 1.

When I wrote Sunday afternoon’s edition of Updraft, the models were back in agreement after squabbling for next week’s rain. However, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s Global Forecast System are no longer in sync at all.

The maps below show the two competing views in rain coverage.