Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Minnesota weather: Storm risk upgraded on Wednesday

severe weather risk for july 1 2026
The map shows an enhanced risk of severe storms Wednesday across much of southern Minnesota.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center

Every day the forecast features heat, with storms skipping a day, from Monday to Wednesday to Friday to Sunday. Next up, we get some thunder at the southern end of Minnesota.

We could also pick up some more haze by Wednesday, combined from diffuse Saharan Desert dust and wildfire smoke from both Colorado and Alaska. Three parts of the world are converging on Minnesota this week.

Low temps tonight
National Blend of Models low temperature outputs for Wednesday.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via WeatherBell Analytics
High temps Wednesday
National Blend of Models high temperature outputs for Wednesday.
NOAA, via WeatherBell Analytics

Once again, we are pushing 90 degrees. The weather in the Twin Cities feels substantially less muggy, but dew points are still elevated from what we’d typically expect for the final day of June.

There should be a second wave of thunderstorms Tuesday in parts of southeastern Minnesota, including Rochester and La Crescent. Enjoy the sunshine if you can do it coolly; the UV and sunburn index are really high Tuesday.

Severe storm potential Wednesday

Let’s move to Wednesday, when rain returns. This begins midmorning in the southwestern corner of Minnesota.

This is a really compelling severe weather day, as much of far-southern Minnesota was upgraded toward the rougher storms risk a level three out of five (enhanced) for severe weather.

severe weather risk for july 1 2026
The map shows an enhanced risk of severe storms Wednesday across much of southern Minnesota.
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

The most likely time is 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. for the Twin Cities, Rochester and Albert Lea, though there will be storms hanging around the Interstate 90 corridor much of the day.

wedpr 106
Forecast precipitation 5 a.m. Wednesday through 7 a.m. Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

In the northern two-thirds of Minnesota, you might wonder, “What the heck is Ben talking about? It’s totally sunny.” Indeed, this stormy day will only impact a small portion of Minnesota. That said, some storms could be on the stronger-to-severe side, especially sitting at the Minnesota-Iowa border.

There may be some storms closer to dinner time — and in the same areas — and then a third round that comes for the cities closer to 10 p.m. Wednesday. Some places will get no rain at all while others could have up to three rounds of big storms!

Thursday is still toasty but otherwise pretty similar to the sunshine and heat of Thursday.

Flash drought chances
The new 8-14 day outlook has been released and it shows the potential of a flash drought forming.
National Weather Service

Below are reports to the National Weather Service of significant wind and hail damage from local storms on Monday into Monday night.

Northern Minnesota

  • Zim: Trees down on power lines, power out

  • Nisswa: trees down

  • Herbster: wind damage

  • Melrude: wind damage

  • Jacobson: huge pine branch thrown into ground like javelin

  • Jacobson: road blocked by trees down

Southern Minnesota

  • St James: Trained Spotter reported multiple 8-10 inch diameter trees blown down or snapped in half

  • Alexandria: trees down

  • Cambridge: 20-inch diameter tree branch fell on a mobile home.

  • Luxembourg: huge birch tree down

  • Kenyon: funnel cloud seen

Northwestern Minnesota

  • Flom: brief tornado touchdowns

  • Ulen: trees down

  • Moorhead: 3-inch hail

Smoke over MN`
We could see more hazy skies, caused by wildfire smoke coming in from both Colorado and Alaska, in the coming days.
NOAA