Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Week ahead starts off quiet with storm chances increasing by Tuesday

Strong storms possible with heavy rainfall

Quiet through Monday night
Quiet through Monday night
National Weather Service

Our week is off to a quiet start, but storm chances will increase by Tuesday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal averages through much of the week before a possible warm-up arrives next weekend.

More rain chances return after a dry start to the week

After a wet and stormy Fourth of July weekend, Sunday gave us a preview of what's in store to begin the new week. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will help temperatures climb into the middle and upper 80s on Monday, just a few degrees above average for early July.

Highs for Monday
Highs for Monday
National Weather Service

By late Monday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas along an approaching cold front.

Surface analysis for Monday night
Surface analysis for Monday night
NOAA via Weather Prediction Center

While these storms will attempt to move into Minnesota overnight, they are expected to weaken as they move further southeast, mainly affecting northern and portions of central Minnesota.

Forecast precipitation Monday 7 a.m. to midnight
Forecast precipitation Monday 7 a.m. to midnight
NOAA via Pivotal Weather

Our attention will be focused on Tuesday, with the potential for heavy rainfall, some models are showing accumulation ranging from 1 to 2 plus inches.

Forecast total precipitation through Wednesday 7 p.m.
Forecast total precipitation through Wednesday 7 p.m.
NOAA via WeatherBELL Analytics

In addition to the heavy rain threat, there is also a slight risk for a stronger complex of thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

Severe weather risk for Tuesday
Severe weather risk for Tuesday
NOAA via Storm Prediction Center

As we get closer to Tuesday, forecast confidence will continue to improve, giving us a much clearer picture of the timing, location, and overall severity of any storms that develop.

Once our midweek storm system exits, the forecast settles down considerably. Thursday through Saturday look dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity, providing a welcome break from the active weather. High temperatures should remain near normal for early July, with only small chances for isolated showers.