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Every second counts when thunderstorms develop. In a warming climate where lightning is expected to become more frequent, having advance notice before the first bolt strikes can make all the difference.

Early lightning detection in a warming world

As a meteorologist, I understand the science behind thunderstorms. 

But I've also experienced them from a different perspective, as a mom sitting in the bleachers during countless baseball games, watching dark clouds build on the horizon and wondering whether play would stop before the first lightning strike.

Despite my background in weather, I was genuinely surprised to discover that systems existed that could monitor atmospheric conditions and provide another layer of awareness when there is a risk for lightning.

One system is the Thor Guard lightning prediction and warning system. Unlike systems that only detect lightning after it has already occurred, Thor Guard continuously monitors changes in the atmospheric electric field — approximately 170,000 times per second.

By analyzing these changes, it can identify conditions that are favorable for lightning to develop, providing advance warning before a strike occurs.

Systems like Thor Guard can give schools, golf courses, sports complexes, industrial facilities, airports and other outdoor venues valuable time — five to 20 minutes before lightning strikes — to move people to safety. The Twin Cities area has 19 operating systems. 

Our warming climate will lead to the increase in frequency of lightning because warmer air can hold more moisture and provide more energy for thunderstorms. 

For every 1-degree Celsius (1.8-degrees Fahrenheit) increase in Earth's atmospheric temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7 percent more water vapor. 

This additional moisture creates a more favorable environment for stronger thunderstorms and more frequent lightning. 

As storm intensity increases, so does the likelihood of charge separation within clouds, resulting in more frequent lightning strikes. A warmer world is expected to bring more lightning activity in many areas. 

As both a meteorologist and a mom on the sidelines, I know how quickly a beautiful day can turn into a dangerous situation when thunderstorms approach. We may not be able to control when lightning strikes, but we can improve how prepared we are. 

Lightning will always be a powerful force of nature, but technology gives us a better way to understand and respond to it. In a warming world where lightning risks may increase, early detection and timely action remain two of our most important tools for keeping people safe.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Mandy Thalhuber

Author

Every second counts when thunderstorms develop. In a warming climate where lightning is expected to become more frequent, having advance notice before the first bolt strikes can make all the difference.


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