Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

More heat, rain Thursday, dry to follow

Coming rain deficit
This shows the month-long rain deficit at the center of the summery heat dome. Some spots in southern Minnesota could eventually get a little surplus if the storm track shifts just a little.
ECMWF via WeatherBell

If you’re like me, you look out the window onto the lawn and you see… yellow and brown. We’ve had some rain at times, sure, but drought is building into parts of Minnesota and there’s only really one widespread chance of rain at a statewide level in the next few days. That happens at the same time as highs stay in the lower 90s.

After some wild dew points early Monday and then our first 100° day in over four years, Tuesday is looking a lot quieter in the MPR weather lab. We’re still in the lower-to-middle 90s before you know it, but humidity is not as impactful.

Smoke aloft
This is the HRRR's view of smoke coming in from Canada, albeit much lighter than two weeks ago.
National Weather Service

There’s an itty-bitty surface high near New Ulm and Albert Lea, but it’s effectively not doing much. We have fair skies, ultralight winds, and a very high UV index on Tuesday. Around dusk, there are a few signals of a couple of thunderstorms in far southwestern Minnesota. That’s where a leftover boundary has been hiding, kept from storms a couple of nights ago.

Low temps tonight
This is the National Blend of Models output for the low temperatures on Wednesday, spread out across Minnesota.
National Weather Service
High temps Wednesday
This is the National Blend of Models output for the high temperatures on Wednesday, spread out across Minnesota.
National Weather Service

Wednesday brings more of the same. That means abundant sunshine, some upper level smoke (perhaps noticeable to the eye but not necessarily impacting surface air quality or threatening breathing), and more ‘dry heat.’ Highs are still in the lower-to-middle 90s, with some 80s sprinkled throughout northern Minnesota. While this weather is not great for the firefighting, at least the winds are light.

Thursday is our best chance of rain this coming week - and it has long appeared that way. Hopefully this will help with drought, even for a day, and allow fire crews to approach containment.

Thursday's rain
This is the rain threat for Thursday. Thursday is our primary chance of rain this week.
National Weather Service
Drought develop or persist area
This yellowish color is where drought could form - fast - because of largely dry and hot conditions. That includes parts of Minnesota.
National Weather Service