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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Ben Cathey

Rain on target despite drought rising

We need at least a foot of rain to alleviate drought

Rain needed to recover from drought
Many spots need well over a foot of rain over the next three months in order to remove drought.
National Weather Service

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Thunderstorms and heavy rain roll in later Thursday, wrapping up for most by noon Friday. Minnesota’s drought conditions, though, continue to worsen.

Much of Minnesota down a foot of rain

The latest report from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows drought conditions deepening across Minnesota.

Based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, here’s how much rain several parts of Minnesota would need, spread out over three months, to alleviate drought without causing flooding:

  • Northwest: 14.01 inches

  • North-central: 19.56 inches

  • Northeast: 14.69 inches

  • Southeast: none

  • South-central: 12.15 inches

  • Southwest: 12.22 inches

  • Twin Cities area: 16.22 inches

  • Central: 12.15 inches

  • West-central: 10.01 inches

Rain needed to recover from drought
Many spots need well over a foot of rain over the next three months in order to remove drought.
National Weather Service

That’s a whole lot of rain.

For reference, Minneapolis and St. Paul average just over 31 inches of precipitation over an entire year, melted snow included. To get rid of drought would require about six months of rain in half that time!

While the lilies and hydrangeas may look great now, this drought is not going to leave soon.

Rain on the way for many

On Thursday, we’ll top out in the lower 90s across the region, except perhaps far northern Minnesota where the rain starts the earliest.

Along the Canadian border, some booming thunderstorms start bringing downpours around 4 p.m. Thursday near Lake of the Woods. For many other spots, especially southwestern Minnesota, the rain gets here just before midnight.

HRRR map of storms
The map shows storms rolling in Thursday, turning into regular rain by Thursday night late.
National Weather Service

The latest data makes kind of a Pac-Man shape for rain totals. That would leave Duluth, Brainerd, and east-central Minnesota a lot more dry than it once looked.

Rain rolls through the Twin Cities around dawn on Friday. It will be a cooler day with largely overcast skies, but we’re not looking at an all-day rainout.

Friday should be in the mid-70s, although some maps show quite a bit warmer temperatures. We could have much higher temps in northern Minnesota, where the clouds will not linger.

Heavy rain totals
The forecast shows heavy rain across southwestern Minnesota and lighter rain in other spots.
National Weather Service
Low temps tonight
The lows tonight are generally in the lower 70s, and with the rain, it's going to be a little soupy.
National Weather Service
High temps Friday
This is the high temperature map for Friday. Notice hot much cooler it is under the rain and clouds, versus much hotter north.
National Weather Service

The weekend is all dry, so go out and enjoy the more moderate temps!

The next best chance of rain is still next Monday night into Tuesday. Some of that front could be pretty powerful.

While we’re NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center doesn’t have Minnesota in a severe outlook yet, we would not be surprised if that changes given the dynamics for this time of the year.

Later into next week, we have more quiet weather and some middle 80s for highs across the state.