Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Spotty thunder chances ahead of a cool front late Monday into Tuesday

Another chance of thunder Friday

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Forecast surface weather conditions Monday into Tuesday
National Weather Service

A cool front will touch off some spotty storms for northern Minnesota Monday afternoon and statewide Monday night. High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

Spotty thunder chances ahead of a cool front late Monday into Tuesday

Southern Minnesota will have a pleasant day with sunshine and highs in the low 80s. Dew points should be mainly in the 50s still though they’ll increase late in the day into tonight, south, Northern Minnesota will see increased cloud cover and highs in the mid 70s.

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Forecast highs Monday
National Weather Service

As expected, most of us were left wanting for rainfall over the weekend. A lucky swath of east central and north central Minnesota did see 1 inch or more but most of us saw much less. In fact, the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport received just 0.02 inches. Cambridge however saw 1.78 inches.

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Estimated rainfall over the weekend
NOAA via Pivotal Weather

We’ll start to see some showers and thunderstorms pop-up in northwest Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas midday ahead of an advancing cool front. Spotty storms will then spread across northern and far western Minnesota by late Monday afternoon and evening. What’s left will trickle south and southeast overnight Monday night. We’ll have some lingering instability touching off a few storms yet in southern Minnesota Tuesday as the front continues to slowly advance south.

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Forecast precipitation 9 a.m. Monday through 11 p.m. Tuesday
NOAA via Pivotal Weather

There is a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) for much of central and southern Minnesota with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for southwest Minnesota Monday into early Tuesday. The main threats would be isolated large hail and a damaging wind gust or two in western Minnesota.

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Severe weather outlook for Monday into early Tuesday
Iowa State University Environmental Mesonet

Don’t look for a lot of rainfall however for most. A few lucky, highly localized spots will get some good downpours but most will see under a quarter to half inch of rain.

Behind the front, dew points will start to drop Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in. Dew points will drop from the 60s into the 50s with even some 40s in northern Minnesota.

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Forecast dew points Monday evening through Wednesday evening
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts via pivotal weather

We’ll have a pleasant midweek with sunshine and slightly cooler highs for Wednesday. Most of the state will see highs in the 70s Wednesday before 80s return Thursday.

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Forecast highs Wednesday
National Weather Service

Another cool front will slide through Thursday night into Friday touching off just another spotty chance of showers and thunderstorms. There will be another slight dip in temps and dew points for the upcoming weekend again.

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Forecast precipitation Wednesday night through early Saturday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts via pivotal weather

Total rainfall between our two chances this week will not be sufficient for most. As is usually the case, if you get one of those good thunderstorms you can see some highly localized, higher amounts but most of us will see under a half inch of total weekly rainfall.

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Forecast total rainfall this week through early Saturday
NOAA via Pivotal Weather