Storms offer slight help for drought

What if I told you east-central Minnesota and the Twin Cities needed more than 15 inches of rain over the next three months to end drought? And what if you knew that the normal precipitation for an entire year around the Cities was about 31 inches? That includes melted snow, too. So, while drought technically didn’t expand much, and the mapping doesn’t really look much different from surrounding states, the alarm bells are going off for weather folks.

Rain is returning for much of the state on Thursday afternoon and into the evening, followed by a quick wave of storms on Friday evening. For now, a good-sized stripe of Minnesota is in the “Level Two” risk for severe weather, also called a slight risk. Damaging winds and hail are the biggest potential issues, and right in the middle of the state, during the middle of the afternoon on Thursday. While it is certainly more humid than previous days, the cloud-cover is making it a little cooler, at least for a time. The best chance of showers in the most-heavily populated parts of Minnesota is in the late afternoon, right next to the PM commute home. That could briefly slow down traffic, no doubt.

Another wave of storms tries to form over Lake of the Woods (or nearby) around 4:00 p.m. Friday. This then moves near Duluth, then basically dives straight south. Most of this is wrapped up by 9:00 p.m. Friday but a few sprinkles are possible very early Saturday morning.

Apart from that, the only rain chances over the weekend are inside the Arrowhead region, with some Saturday sprinkles. We’re fairly close to average, meaning the lower 80s around the Twin Cities. While there are some high clouds across the state on Sunday, it’s all dry and fairly mild. Great lake day or yardwork day!

There is another rain chance in western Minnesota starting early Monday morning - actually right in the heart of the Minnesota River Valley’s farming country. The light showers kind of dance all over Minnesota before finally arriving Monday night into early Tuesday morning closer to the Minneapolis, St. Paul, and surrounding suburban regions.

What we’ll be tracking - the weather maps are finally aligning - is a potential cutoff low coming out of the Prairie Provinces of Canada by next Wednesday. This often ‘blob’ of a circular system often holds temperatures down, and brings repeat chances of showers, even after the models stop the rain. If that forms, it could be a cooler start of the State Fair. If not, it will remain toasty later into next week.