Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Storm chances early in the week, comfortable start to the fair

Strong to severe storms possible Monday and Tuesday

Forecast precipitation Monday 7 p.m. to Tuesday 7 a.m.
Forecast precipitation Monday 7 p.m. to Tuesday 7 a.m.
NOAA via Pivotal Weather

Minnesota is in for a more active stretch of weather over the next couple of days, with thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. A calm stretch expected for the start of the Minnesota State Fair.

Active start to the work week

Our weather pattern becomes more active to start the work week, bringing several opportunities for much-needed rain along with a renewed threat for thunderstorms. While a few storms could become strong or severe, temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through the week, with highs ranging from the 70s up north to the 80s across southern Minnesota.

High temperatures Monday will climb into the 70s across northern Minnesota, with warmer 80s expected farther south.

Highs for Monday
Highs for Monday
National Weather Service

Meanwhile, dew points will rise into the 60s, bringing a noticeable increase in humidity and providing additional fuel for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night.

Dew points Monday 7 a.m. to Tuesday 7 a.m.
Dew points Monday 7 a.m. to Tuesday 7 a.m.
NOAA via College of DuPage Weather

A cluster of storms is expected to develop across eastern North Dakota Monday night before moving east into Minnesota after midnight. Some of these storms could initially produce large hail and damaging winds, but they are expected to gradually weaken as they move into Minnesota.

Forecast precipitation Monday 7 p.m. to Tuesday 7 a.m.
Forecast precipitation Monday 7 p.m. to Tuesday 7 a.m.
NOAA via Pivotal Weather

The greatest opportunity for overnight rainfall will be across west-central Minnesota, where showers and thunderstorms could continue into Tuesday morning. Some light rain may linger across portions of southern Minnesota through the middle or late morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Red River Valley in a level 2 out of 5 slight risk for severe weather, with a level 1 out of 5 marginal risk extending into areas near Lake of the Woods, Bemidji, Alexandria and Morris.

Severe weather threat for Monday
Severe weather threat for Monday
NOAA via Storm Prediction Center

Tuesday afternoon and evening could bring another round of thunderstorms, especially across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and large hail the primary concerns. A slight risk remains across a majority of the state.

Severe weather threat for Tuesday
Severe weather threat for Tuesday
NOAA via Storm Prediction Center

Cooler, drier air will settle in behind Tuesday’s front, setting the stage for a comfortable start to the Minnesota State Fair. Dew points will drop into the 50s, with temperatures hovering in the low 80s.

High and low temperature map
High and low temperature map
NOAA via WeatherBELL Analytics

After a quieter stretch Thursday and Friday, the weather pattern looks to become more active heading into next weekend. Several disturbances are expected to move through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, bringing increasing chances for much-needed showers and thunderstorms from Friday night through Sunday.