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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Ben Cathey

Thunderstorms fire up Friday night, cooler weather follows

GFS map of spin across America
We pulled back the map to show the vorticity maximum spinning over Minnesota on Monday. This is our best hope for widespread rain - without much evaporation - in a long time. Keep your fingers crossed, folks! That said, you may be feeling some aches and pains, as the deeper low drops the barometric pressure. In talking with doctors throughout my career, calls for increased joint pain coincide with steeply dropping barometric pressure.
National Weather Service

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If you were to craft your ideal weather day, what would kind of features would be a ‘must?’ That’s subjective and would vary person to person. But we’d wager low humidity would be at the top of the list, perhaps blue skies (for many, though not all), a crisp morning to have your coffee outside with, paired with around 80 degrees in the afternoon. How does that sound? That’s effectively what we’ve had on Thursday but the changes are almost here!

Winds will begin to kick corn sweat farther north on Friday as an approaching storm system dives east from the Dakotas. Friday’s much-advertised rain and storms are leaving much to be desired for our drought. If you’d like to read a deeper dive into this week’s drought report, meteorologist Mandy Thalhuber has you covered right HERE. The daytime is quiet and humid, but largely rain-free. Rain is still coming, but certainly not for all of Minnesota. Even though the ‘yellow’ or ‘slight’ risk covers most of the state Friday night, it’ll mostly be northeastern and central Minnesota that get storms. Bemidji appears to be the bullseye for severe chances locally Friday night. If I were to put my chips on any city and any time on Friday, it would be there, from 9:00 pm - 12:00 am. High winds and an isolated tornado are both possible.

Rain for Friday night
The rain looks a lot more spotty Friday night, compared with previous map runs earlier in the week. We'll need some serious luck for drought-busting rains in other parts of Minnesota.
National Weather Service
Central MN weather risk
If you look closely near Cass Lake and Bemidji, Minnesota, there are some blue and green dots. This is where the severe threat appears to be greatest for late Friday evening, just before midnight.
National Weather Service

What about temps Friday and beyond? Friday is going to be pretty warm. Given the bias of weather maps to under-do pre-frontal heat, I imagine many spots will be in the middle 80s in southern Minnesota, likely in the Twin Cities, as well. We’re likely to see that same trend play out in the Minnesota River Valley, closer to the frontal forcing. In short, it will be a steamy day and pretty hot on Friday across most of the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Saturday is trending cooler. With the cold air aloft behind Friday night’s developing front, it’s also likely we’ll have some dark clouds flare up, further adding a chill. Right now rain looks like a far-off chance Saturday, but I’ve been burned by this setup before - and highs will often under-perform in weather patterns just like this.

Low temps tonight
Looks like another fair night across the state. With the clear skies, we are cooler. But that clarity will also give you the chance to see both the Milky Way and Andromeda.
National Weather Service
High temps Friday
Here are your high temperatures on a hotter and more humid Friday. For many, this will be the most toasty day of the week.
National Weather Service

Sunday brings an ‘okay’ rain chance to southern parts of Minnesota. Highs will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s. There will be abundant cloud cover, regardless or rain, making it feel even cooler. Monday brings (by far) our best widespread rain chances in a while. Highs are unlikely to reach into the 60s across most of the state, and the rain could easily pile up above one inch. That doesn’t end the drought but should help gardens!

Following Monday’s rains, there’s a slow and steady climb of temperatures through next weekend.