Overnight rains into the start of fall foliage
More rain is back Wednesday night, then very light rain Thursday night. Some cool mornings are on tap, especially in northern Minnesota.
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Looking forward to some more rain? Sure, some overnight showers Wednesday into Thursday and Thursday into Friday will take down some dried-out leaves, but we should get some aid for our drought. We have a generally cooler forecast but nothing is really leaping off the computer screen for an unbelievable chill — this is actually all pretty standard.
Big waves, small temperatures
The only alert out for all of Minnesota Tuesday is a gale warning on the open waters of Lake Superior. While all has looked calm on the Duluth harbor cameras, plus all of those nearby, you cannot say the same for the west side of the Upper Peninsula. Minnesota Public Radio has a small station in Houghton, Mich., so there is some local tie-in. Waves could climb above 11 feet for a brief time as the winds are pushing away from the North Shore, moving east towards the opposite side of Lake Superior.
You might even want a jacket for warmth if you’re out later Tuesday anywhere across Minnesota. There could be a slight wind chill! That’s especially the case in northern parts of the state Wednesday morning. Temperatures there will nosedive towards the upper 30s and lower 40s; unlike many previous days, that will actually be fairly widespread.
Across the southern half of the state, we’ll be in the lower 50s. Doesn’t sound too cold, right? Wednesday could be the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport’s coldest morning since way back on May 24!
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Wednesday afternoon will also be below normal. While a little chilly, and with mostly cloudy skies developing later in the day, its still an overall really nice time to make outdoor plans across Minnesota.
Two dashes of late rain
Most of Wednesday’s daylight hours are dry, but rain is back in the western end of the state by dinner time. More rain starts to develop after dusk, especially closer to midnight.
The coverage on the midday weather maps that just came out are looking better (higher coverage across Minnesota) late night. This could be better news for our drought for two reasons: for one, rain overnight is less impactful to many folks’ outdoor plans. The other reason: less moisture will evaporate overnight, letting more of the soil recharge. Looking around the Twin Cities right now, you’ll find anywhere from 4 to 12 percent of normal soil moisture when digging down two inches into the topsoil. There are many more soil gauges around the Twin Cities than in other parts of the state, but it is probably fairly similar elsewhere.
Rain comes back late on Thursday night, but more likely into early Friday morning. This actually should be heavy at times, though the severe weather risk is pretty small. We’d bet this slows traffic a little bit on the busy highways Friday morning. The raw output from our weather maps behind the scenes is actually really heavy. Both a Canadian map (called the GDPS) and the European deterministic map have a widespread 2 to 3 inches from Highway 212 down south to Highway 14. That would even give the Twin Cities north of 2 inches of rain through Friday night.
The new GFS (American) map has the heaviest rain in a much more narrow line, still going west to east, closer to central Minnesota, skipping north of the Cities. No matter what, some spots should get really beneficial rains!
The leaves are greener…
This week is when we traditionally get a pop of early leaf color in northern Minnesota. That’s especially the case near Roseau and on higher elevations of the Iron Range near the far northeast of Minnesota. Much of that is based on day length and cooler temperatures. The drought throws a wrench in the timing and there’s still a lot to learn on leaf color forecasting.
With the coldish mornings coming soon, the chemical makeup of the leaves in northern Minnesota will slowly change. Our friends at Explore Fall keep updating their fall color forecast.
They believe some small tracts of forest along Highway 61 will soon produce great fall color by the coming weekend. This is the road that runs parallel to the Lake Superior shoreline.
