From tiny showers to tracking the big wave

Minnesota will get a quick hit of rain Wednesday night in two segments. Thursday is warmer and a tiny bit humid. A more organized band of heavy rain targets parts of Minnesota on Friday, with warmer weather building next week.

Here come the clouds

After a stunning start to Wednesday, with the coldest morning since May 24 verified in the Twin Cities, we’re soon going to watch milky-white clouds stream in.

The rain kicks off in northwestern Minnesota by Wednesday evening, and a second chunk of rain is here for southern Minnesota, too.

Central Minnesota, the area parallel to the North Dakota — South Dakota borders, probably will not get much rain, if any at all.

This is primarily an overnight rain event. You might wake up and say “Oh, must’ve rained last night,” but apart from some morning fog on Thursday, this will have minimal impacts.

We are already loading the deck for the Friday storm complex by Friday morning.

Winds out of the south along with leftover clouds will set up a milder morning across the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The afternoon is also a little warmer, technically a couple of degrees above average.

Thursday is still a really nice day to get stuff done before the larger rains roll into town.

At the top of this blog entry, plus in the image below, you’ll see the plume plot for rains at a point forecast in Minneapolis on Friday.

The charts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System are actually different sets of data, even though they look alike.

They both show around 2 inches of rain on Friday for the Twin Cities. Some other data puts the heaviest rain in southeastern Minnesota, where 4-inch forecasts near have prompted a flood watch.

Here’s what we can say without getting big rain hopes up: Southern Minnesota is still going to get a heavy rain event on Friday.

That event will not single-handedly end the drought. Nor will the rain count in the next drought conditions report.

We think the big rains will most likely stay south of U.S. Highway 14. A Madison to Montevideo to Hutchinson to Twin Cities to Eau Claire, Wis., line and points south are still looking really promising for at least a couple of inches of rain.

The weekend is made up of off-and-on clouds. Saturday should be mostly dry, with some more rain back by Sunday night to Monday.

Budding warm spell

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has Minnesota in the crosshairs for a good chance of warmer-than-normal conditions rolling into next week, plus the start of the following week after that.

The high temperatures will not jump off the page but we could be a little above normal. That could temporarily stall some fall colors building in for northern Minnesota.