Minnesota braces for a major rainmaker Friday
Heavy rain could trigger flooding across southeastern Minnesota
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Minnesota is heading toward a potentially soggy end to the week with widespread heavy rain expected Friday into early Saturday. The heaviest rainfall is currently expected from the Twin Cities metro area south toward the Minnesota–Iowa border, where 3 to 5 inches or more could fall.
Heavy rainfall expected Friday
A significant storm system will bring attention to the Upper Midwest from Friday into the weekend, arriving in two distinct waves.
The system is currently organizing over the Four Corners and southern Rockies. As it moves north and east, it will interact with a strong upper-level pattern and draw increasingly abundant moisture into Minnesota.
By early Friday morning, a large area of showers is expected to spread into central and southern Minnesota. The initial wave of rain between Friday morning and Friday afternoon could produce 1 to 2 inches or more in locations where the rain shield remains in place for an extended period.
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Current forecast models suggests the first round could focus from west-central Minnesota toward the Twin Cities before gradually weakening later Friday. But that may not be the end of the rain.
A second round of rain could bring torrential amounts
A second round of potentially heavier rainfall is expected to develop later Friday night into Saturday morning as a surface warm front lifts across southern Minnesota. This round could affect south-central and southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa and eventually southwestern Wisconsin.
The setup is concerning because thunderstorms could repeatedly track along the same general area.
When storms move parallel to a frontal boundary instead of quickly moving across it, rainfall can "train" over the same locations, rapidly adding to storm totals. That creates the potential for very heavy rainfall in localized areas, and the potential for flooding.
The biggest forecast question right now is how far north that second round of storms will develop, and whether it overlaps areas that have already received substantial rain earlier Friday.
Flooding potential increasing
With multiple rounds of rain possible, flooding will be an important concern, particularly Friday night into early Saturday morning.
The highest rainfall totals are currently favored across the southern portion of the Twin Cities metro area and areas extending south and east toward northeast Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin.
Some locations could receive 3 to 5 inches or more, although rainfall totals will vary considerably over short distances.
Residents in flood-prone areas should keep an eye on the forecast as Friday approaches, particularly if additional rain falls before the main event.
The upcoming stretch of heavy rain could provide a significant boost to areas still experiencing drought, especially where rainfall totals reach several inches. However, the benefits will depend heavily on where the heaviest rain falls.
