Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Coldest weather in months headed our way soon

While not everyone will get rain on Thursday, we're set up for a more widespread frost on Saturday

Blue map of Minnesota
Ope! Saturday morning should be, by far, the coldest morning of the season for southern parts of Minnesota. This is timed about 36 hours after the prior cold front, which is often when the dip in temperatures is most pronounced.
ECMWF via WeatherBell

Next week is likely to be windy and warmer, all followed by some solid continental lows. Those large storm systems often mean big swings in our temperatures and wind directions, plus they can rip down fall color from trees.

Big drop already underway

All of the cloud cover is a sign of colder air aloft, with really chilly temperatures up at the cloud level. While the frontal passage is already happening, there’s a very brief window for a couple of tiny showers Tuesday evening into the early overnight. New UIm, Redwood Falls, Mankato and the Twin Cities should see a couple of low-impact raindrops around 8-10 p.m. Tuesday.

brief raindrop
There's a tiny window for rain Tuesday evening/night but it's been showing up right over the Twin Cities day after day. This is around 9 pm.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh

We are looking a little cool into a more clear Wednesday. I keep having to remind myself that while the lower 60s sound pretty cold for highs, that’s exactly normal for mid-October. Wednesday should end up looking very pleasant and the sun will make it feel noticeably warmer than Tuesday ever could.

There’s some rain back on Thursday. We have the high-res data right below, followed by the wider view. Notice how large the storm is in scale, which also means it will pull in more cold air later Thursday into Friday.

rain gets here Thursday
The rain rolls into southern Minnesota on Thursday. This is the last frame of data available on the high resolution mapping, but more rain will likely slide into northern Minnesota later Thursday.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh
Large storm across America
This jumbo-sized storm system brings snow to the Rockies but really cold rain (well, cool) to much of Minnesota.
Global Forecasting System

A real chill

Actually behind schedule by quite a bit, the coldest air of the season will soon be here. There may even be a few melty snowflakes way up in northern Minnesota Thursday evening or into early Friday. That’s totally normal. The average first day of measurable snow (this is not likely to stick at a heavy enough pace to be measured) at International Falls is Oct. 22.

Oftentimes we get the biggest temperature impact about 36 hours behind a cold front. The front that arrives on Thursday will be most acutely felt on Saturday morning. Hello sweater weather? Too early to turn on the heat? Well, maybe, because we will warm right back up for parts of next week.

white map of USA with small stripes
Along with lots of wind into next week, we are primed for a big warming trend ahead of the next big storm track. The storm nears on October 22, so we're warm before that.
Climate Prediction Center

Swing and a miss

Just as soon as the first 30s arrive in the Twin Cities this season (that’s this Saturday, just to reiterate), we should warm back up early next week. Note the below image, which is the chances of warmer-than-normal temperatures. That is a very high probability, though we are not as apt to break record high temperatures.

We will be pretty windy, as the above image showcases. The CPC has much of Minnesota at a risk for high wind hazards. That happens when we get so warm, out of seasonal norms, as a front nears our region. That is also likely to bring rain through the middle of next week.

Streaks of red and blue on USA map
Along with lots of wind into next week, we are primed for a big warming trend ahead of the next big storm track. The storm nears on October 22, so we're warm before that.
Climate Prediction Center