Twin Cities still waiting for its first freeze as October winds down
The metro is closing in on the latest first freeze date on record
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The Twin Cities has passed its average first-freeze date, but temperatures at Minneapolis–St. Paul International Airport have yet to dip to 32 degrees or colder this fall.
Late freezes have happened before
The typical first-freeze date is Oct. 11, putting the metro area behind schedule as we approach the end of the month. But how unusual is this extended stretch without freezing temperatures?
According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, about 90 percent of autumn seasons historically recorded a temperature of 32 degrees or colder in the Twin Cities by Oct. 28. The Twin Cities’ first fall freeze has arrived in November just eight times in the historical record: 1894, 1900, 1921, 1924, 1931, 1940, 1958 and 2016.
The most notable record came in 2016, when the Twin Cities didn't record its first fall temperature of 32 degrees or colder until Nov. 18. That was 11 days later than the previous record of Nov. 7, set in 1900.
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The timing of the first fall freeze varies considerably across Minnesota. Northern parts of the state typically see their first freeze in September, while locations farther south generally don't reach freezing temperatures until October.
As shown in the graphic above, much of northern Minnesota has already experienced its first freeze, with the exception of parts of the North Shore and Duluth area. Farther south, portions of the Twin Cities metro and areas south of St. Cloud have yet to dip to the freezing mark.
Looking ahead, it appears the Twin Cities will have to wait a bit longer for its first freeze. After a cool, rainy start to the week, temperatures are expected to rebound quickly, with highs climbing into the 60s Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows are forecast to remain in the 40s through the end of October. As a result, the Twin Cities looks likely to head into the final days of October without recording its first temperature of 32 degrees or colder.
The bigger question is what happens as we move into November. With the average first-freeze date already in the rearview mirror and the Nov. 18, 2016 record still ahead, the Twin Cities has plenty of room for a later-than-average first freeze. We'll have to watch for the next push of colder air to see when temperatures finally reach the freezing mark.
