Severe storms possible Wednesday evening followed by cooler temperatures

We are watching for isolated, damaging hail and damaging, straight-line winds Wednesday afternoon and evening — along with a chance of a tornado or two. This is really the only part of the country under a severe weather bulletin for the day.

After Wednesday, we get a little bit cooler closer to Halloween, but temperatures remain above average. There are still no big signs of frosty cold weather around southern Minnesota all the way until at least the middle of November.

Tracking Wednesday storms to sun

Even as the sun broke through clouds later Wednesday morning, we were already at the warmest part of the work week. Temperatures were already about 10 degrees above the average high for the day, and I’m sure you felt the humidity if you’ve ventured outside to do a run or grab a coffee. We have really high dew points moving from northern Iowa into south-central and southeastern Minnesota as the day progresses. That gives us moisture, but we also have some sheer, lift and instability. Those four ingredients are something we call S.L.I.M.

Storms began to flare up across western Minnesota by early Wednesday afternoon, but these are not expected to be severe nor especially organized. Don’t be surprised if you hear thunder rumbling. After 2 p.m. Wednesday, we get a few more of the ingredients needed for strong to severe storms. This will be around the Interstate 90 corridor closer to Austin and Rochester.

The 4-7 p.m. window has the most severe weather potential for the Twin Cities metro region over east towards the Wisconsin border. Briefly damaging hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado are our major issues. Although lightning does not make a thunderstorm severe technically, you will want to be aware of lightning potential for outdoor activities.

The last time Minnesota had October tornadoes was in 2021 and there were nine of them that month! Thankfully autumn severe weather is somewhat rare regionally, but that doesn’t mean it’s nonexistent. Best thing to do is to have multiple ways to receive warnings (car radio, NOAA weather radio, friends texting you, WEA setup on your phone, etc.). After 8 p.m. Wednesday, we could still have a few thunderstorms, but the main severe threat timing is closed.

Leading up to trick-or-treating

Thursday, Friday and Saturday all have a lot in common; while you will likely notice a little bit of a cool down, the weather is still pretty mild given the season. We will have temperatures in the upper 50s around the Twin Cities all the way to the upper 40s for some in northern Minnesota.

The lingering question for me is what does Saturday afternoon look like? The weather maps have been going back-and-forth on rain potential for Halloween. The most aggressive map in the previous few days has dialed back the rain intensity, but still has a few rain showers for the Twin Cities, up Interstate 94 toward St. Cloud and then north towards Brainerd. Other weather maps just have spotty showers in the same area. Right now I’d plan on some stray rain for Saturday afternoon, with southwestern and northwestern Minnesota trending a little drier for trick-or-treaters.

Next week’s storm system and Election Day rain

Sure looks like we will have a large rainmaker ejecting out of the Rocky Mountains early next week. This storm system wants to be hundreds of miles tall by hundreds of miles wide, so it’s a big complex of rain with a lot of potency for wind and low pressure (which could make your joints ache). It’s a pretty classic late fall upper-level low. Plainly said, that means it will probably stick around our region for quite a long time.