Minnesota weather: It's like rain on Election Day

Election Day is fast approaching and the weather could be a factor in the midterm elections. I’ve checked the latest on voting with our MPR Politics team — it’s great having experts across the newsroom — and they tell me that you can vote early through Monday. For particular hours at your location, consult the Minnesota Secretary of State’s website.

Before you get to the polls, or while you wait in line for early voting, you can see the races in your own precinct. The MPR voter guide is simple to use. Scroll down a little and you’ll find out how to see the races on your ballot.

Tuesday’s forecast

Unlike a lot of recent weather events that teeter back and forth on whether we’ll have rain or not, the forecast for Election Day on Tuesday has been pretty consistent for rainfall. This actually kicks off Monday, and that rain on Monday could be pretty heavy. Many could easily snag an inch of rain that day alone.

At the very least, you should expect to slosh around in puddles by Tuesday. As I type this Friday afternoon, the best chance for rain on Election Day is across eastern Minnesota with rain also highly likely in northwestern Minnesota. Both locations favor rain because of the upper-level low position. The humongous storm system will start moving towards Duluth and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan by early morning Tuesday, allowing drier air into western and central Minnesota.

Much like a spinning top that you played with as a kid, the spinning low pressure center itself will move around and not stay static. The low will shift back west and then move south, covering much of Minnesota with chilly rain. While the rain is on the cool side, we’re actually still likely to be well above average for November. It’s just that standing around in the rain while we’re in the 50s and lower 60s that might be chilly, depending on your comfort level.

Rain will also likely stick around parts of Minnesota throughout Election Day. Do you ever wonder what active weather means for elections across the U.S. or the world?

Turnout and weather

Sometime during my undergrad years, while plowing through multivariable calculus and fluid dynamics for meteorology, I took an elective on political science and the press. I have a vivid memory of (not surprising) the weather and its impact on election turnout, or how many many hold off on voting because of rain or snow.

New research on voting and weather shows that the influence of storms may be lower than previously expected on how many, or how few, people head to the polls. One of the biggest drivers is the prevenance of early voting. Not only can you choose your day to vote based around the forecast, but lines may not be as long on any particular day — thus not as much need to stand outside in the elements. In a new blog from the American Meteorological Society, meteorologist Amber Liggett Torres writes:

“While it’s hard to quantify large-scale effects, we know that severe weather can cause major disruptions on Election Day. For example, in 2014, midterm elections coincided with the aftermath of a major snowstorm in Maine that left at least 80,000 people without power. Authorities had to move polling places at the last minute and supply emergency heat and electricity. In 2018, in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, movement and consolidation of polling places may have affected voter turnout.

“It’s worth taking into account factors that affect your access to the polls, and how they might be impacted by weather. Population density, local transportation infrastructure, voting norms, and polling-place location may all influence voting patterns and how voters respond to weather. In densely populated areas, some voters may need to navigate crowded transit or wait outdoors. In sparsely populated areas, polling places may be farther apart, requiring longer drives.”

Liggett Torres also sent me looking into the academic literature, including a 2023 study from two scientists in Denmark. The writers state what might seem obvious to you:

“Multiple studies have showed that bad weather, particularly rainfall, depresses turnout in many different electoral contexts and climates around the globe. However, notable exceptions exist,” they write. In Norway and South Korea, however, bad weather could actually cause a higher turnout. One of the findings really stood out to me; the impact on young voters is large when it rains. “Young voters are much more susceptible to weather effects, negative and positive, than more experienced voters,” the co-authors write.

For those voters who have not decided if they want to vote (different than an undecided voter who has not chosen who to will vote for), bad weather can also have big sway in heading to the polls or staying indoors, the scientists wrote. “We hypothesize that marginal voters are more susceptible to adverse weather effects on their voting behavior – and likely also to the positive effects of pleasant weather,” they said in the 2023 research.

Whether it’s Friday, Saturday, Sunday or Monday, you will have plentiful nice weather to be outdoors. Temperatures will be above average and most rain will be passing us by fast. So get out the vote, and get out the umbrella… just in case.