Huttner: Winter storm will make for tough holiday travel

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: The snow that's falling right now is falling gently, at least in the Twin Cities, but don't be fooled. There's heavy snow right now in St. Cloud. This is just the start of another major winter storm and just in time for the holiday weekend. Travel impacts could be serious. MPR News meteorologist Paul Huttner is with us on the line with all the details. Hey, thanks for being here.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, I'm glad, Cathy, to be here. And wow, what a storm. This is remarkable in so many ways. It's hard to know where to start, but we'll get through it.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Let's start with who's getting the snow right now.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Most of Minnesota is getting snow right now. The areas that are not are Southeast Minnesota, still parts of the North Shore and North Central Minnesota. But I'm seeing snowfall rates now approaching half an inch to an inch an hour. We had some heavy snow in Eden Prairie in the last hour. There's a pretty good shot of snow from Glencoe down through Gaylord down to New Ulm that's moving northeast. So that will move into the Twin Cities over the next one to two hours.

And we'll see these pockets of heavy snow. So mostly light to moderate snow today. Not a lot of wind today, but then pockets of heavy snow. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center even got in on the act, Cathy, issuing an advisory for Minnesota for the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour this afternoon. So this continues through the afternoon, through tonight. The snow will probably end from west to east from an Iron Range to the Twin Cities to Rochester line by about midday tomorrow.

It'll linger in Northeast Minnesota. By the time that's done, 5 to 10 inches is a pretty solid widespread amount from Brainerd, St. Cloud, through the Twin Cities. Southern Minnesota, 3 to 5. Rochester, Albert Lea, 1 to 3. Southwest Minnesota, 1 to 3, Northwest Minnesota, and then still 5 to 10 or more along the North Shore. So that's phase one of this storm that happens today through tonight.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Phase two. That's where the wind comes in, right?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Tomorrow, here's what's going to happen. This low pressure system that's dipping down around the Oklahoma panhandle right now is going to race northeast toward Milwaukee, and then it's going to deepen. This thing's going to bomb, rapidly deepen. Bomb cyclones we call them when they drop pressure 24 millibars in 24 hours. This thing is going to hit around 960 millibars in Eastern Canada on Saturday. That's the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane.

Why is that important to Minnesota? Because the wind gradient is going to tighten up across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and we're going to see that tomorrow. So the winds will kick up 20, 30, eventually 40-plus miles an hour tomorrow. And we could have gusts close to 50 tomorrow and Friday, maybe even into early Saturday morning. That's why those blizzard warnings are going up.

And Cathy, just in the last few minutes, the Twin Cities National Weather Service has added the South and West Twin Cities to those blizzard warnings, so Wright County, Carver, Scott, Dakota, you're all in the blizzard warning now starting tomorrow till 6:00 AM Saturday. And this is a big blizzard warning. It runs from Alexandria down through Morris, St. Cloud, Willmar, down to Mankato, Red Wing, Rochester, Albert Lea, and then the northern half of Iowa, Cathy. So lots of winter storm warnings, blizzard warnings.

This is one of those situations where I like to simplify. Basically, if you're in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, the Dakotas, the Eastern Dakotas, you are under a severe winter storm for the next three days, today, tomorrow, and Friday. Travel is going to be impossible, Cathy, in places because we'll get those roads blown shut. This snowfall is powdery dry, 20 or 25 to 1 snow to water ratio.

That's just going to be sent airborne by these 40 mile an hour winds. So if you're stuck out in the open areas, it's going to be life-threatening as the Weather Service has been saying because we're also going to have wind chills of 30 to 40 below tomorrow and into Friday and Saturday morning.

CATHY WURZER: I was noticing earlier this morning in Montana that they had 60 and 70-mile-- 60 and 70-degree wind chills. So all that's coming our way. And that you're right. If you get stuck, you also have to deal with some serious, serious cold. So I guess the question that a lot of people want to know is, well, should I wait and travel, say, late Christmas Eve afternoon?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes. I would say that's the first really good-looking window because I think it's still going to be windy on Christmas Eve morning. And we're going to have a lot of blowing snow in open areas. But as we go through Christmas Eve, the winds will let up midday afternoon hours. Let's call it safer for travel because it depends on how the road crews have done, if they've been able to get those roads cleared.

CATHY WURZER: True.

PAUL HUTTNER: And you're right. It's travel, it's airports, it's roads, it's schools. I mean, a lot of the schools have their criteria for closing. Many of those will meet that, I think, many districts over the next couple of days. So we're Minnesotans, right, Cathy? I mean, we have common sense.

We know not to travel unless we have the winter survival kit, the best tires, the best car, we're a good driver. I would just say if you don't have to travel from today through Friday night, Saturday morning, postpone it. And yeah, that window of Saturday midday and afternoon looks like it will improve.

CATHY WURZER: OK. But of course, we'll keep an eye on that. So let's look into the crystal ball here, the Huttner crystal ball here. Any sign of warmer air ahead next week?

PAUL HUTTNER: There is, and this is one of those times as a meteorologist where you feel like you have to climb up this huge hill first with this storm and then see over the top. It's going to warm up next week. All of the outlooks are saying we're going to get Pacific air moving in. Highs in the 30s potentially.

I mean, sub-zero through Monday morning, but then the warm-up is going to start Tuesday, Wednesday. Wednesday, we could be up in the 30s across Southern Minnesota. So it looks much milder next week. Hopefully we'll get this thing out of the way here without too much harm, and we can enjoy some good outdoor winter weather as we head through next week, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Where's the best place for information? I always tell people to, if you're on Twitter, to at @MPRweather. And we've got that great interactive radar as well that folks can watch, right?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. We do. So on the MPR News page today, we're doing a bunch of things. We've got a live weather blog going. Of course, we've got Updraft updated every several hours. And MPR Twitter is also good, MPR Weather, @MPRweather..

So we're throwing the kitchen sink at this, I mean, right? Sven's here. I'm here. We're doing extra updates. Ron will be here on the weekend updating our weather. So pretty much the scenario for the next three days, hunker down and watch this from hour to hour, and we'll see where we are by the time we get to Saturday morning.

CATHY WURZER: Just got an email from Melissa saying, I didn't get my groceries yesterday. Should I go out this afternoon? And I guess I don't know. Look around you. I guess if you're going to go out, I don't know. I think I'm with you, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Here's what I always tell people because people ask me all the time, well, should I travel? Should I do this or that? I usually don't tell people what to do. I try to give them the best weather conditions available. A lot of that matters on, OK, how far is the store? How good are your tires? How good of a driver are you?

There are so many factors in there. Have that winter survival kit in the car in case you get stuck. So it's always a risk, but if it's something you need that's that serious like groceries and you think you can make it safely, then I'd say go for it sooner rather than later because conditions are really going to deteriorate tomorrow and Friday, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Yes, exactly. All right, Paul Huttner. Thank you so very much.

PAUL HUTTNER: It's my pleasure. Thanks so much.