More snow in the forecast? What to expect

INTERVIEWER: After much of the snow has melted away from the weekend's mild temperatures or washed away by January rains, get ready for more snow. MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner is back to give us this week's weather update. Hey, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy, are you ready for the sixth storm in seven weeks?

INTERVIEWER: No, actually. The rutted roads and the sidewalks that are skating rinks are enough for me, I guess. It arrives what tonight, right?

PAUL HUTTNER: It does. Winter storm warnings out for Southern Minnesota, Worthington, Mankato, Albert, Lee, Rochester, up to about Winona, and Red Wing over to Eau Claire. Winter weather advisory, Marshall, Gaylord, through the Twin Cities.

Here's how this rolls out, Cathy. There's already heavy snow in South Dakota and Nebraska. It is dumping at the rate of about an inch an hour.

And the snow will begin in Southern Minnesota this evening, probably about 9 and 11 PM. It'll cross the border from Iowa, Twin Cities. It probably gets here around midnight, give or take. The heaviest snow after midnight through about 6 or 7:00 in the morning. It will gradually taper off Thursday afternoon.

And with this storm, it's a southerly track. So the highest snowfall totals be across Iowa, Southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin. That's the zone. I think we'll get 5 to 10 inches of snow. We'll see some 10 inch totals, I think.

And then you go up to about Mankato, Red Wing, 4 to 7 inches, maybe into Lakeville in the far Southeast metro. Twin Cities area, a general 2 to 6, maybe too far Northwest, six Southeast. Most of us, I think 3 to 5 inches, something like that. It's going to be another significant storm.

And interesting to note, Cathy, we're on pace for the snowiest winter perhaps in about 12 years. We'll have 52 inches of snow by the time this is done. And 52 inches is our annual average.

INTERVIEWER: Even with the snow melt?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes. Well, that's what's fallen so far. Yes.

INTERVIEWER: Right, right. Exactly. OK. So how is this all helping-- because I was thinking watching the rain, which that was crazy to watch, rain in January, you know.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes.

INTERVIEWER: How much of this moisture is helping to ease the drought?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and you're right. We're getting about two to three times more winter rain on average than we did 30 or 40 years ago. Look, we've put a big dent in the drought. We've had 5.4 inches of liquid precipitation equivalent since November 1 in the Twin Cities, much of Minnesota. And that 10 inch deficit was where we were.

So we've made up about a third to a half around Minnesota. That's bumped the drought categories back two categories in the past month or so and one category in the Twin Cities in just the last week from severe drought to moderate drought. So if we keep this going, we're going to put an even bigger dent in the drought come spring. We're still going to need ample spring rainfall I think to recharge the soils. Cathy, this will really help the lakes and the rivers when this snow melts.

INTERVIEWER: Now somebody just said the other day, well, don't get so excited about this, the warm air that we had with the rain because we usually get a January thaw, which is true, right? That's not terribly unusual to have temperatures where they were earlier in the week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Right. 94% of years we get a January thaw in Minnesota. So that part is very normal. What's really changed is this frequency of winter rain in Minnesota. It's warm enough a lot of times with these systems for rain, and that's about two to three times. It's increased about two to three times in the last 30 to 40 years.

INTERVIEWER: So before you go-- by the way, congratulations. Happy anniversary. I understand that Climate Cast has been on the air 10 years.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. How did that happen? I'm not sure. 500 episodes, I don't know. You just keep cranking them out every week, right.

Look, yeah, we're running a special, a 10-year anniversary special next Tuesday, an Angela Davis slot at 9:00 AM next Tuesday morning. You know, Cathy, the eight warmest years globally have been the last eight years.

So since we've started Climate Cast, climate change has really kicked into high gear. So we thought it would be a good time to ask, what's happened in the last 10 years with climate science, news, and solutions? We've got a great lineup of guests next week. We'll take a look at all that and revisit what we've been working on in the last 10 years and kind of look ahead to the next 10 years. What's going to happen with climate change, the storms, the droughts, and the solutions going forward?

INTERVIEWER: OK. That's next Tuesday, January 24.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, 9:00 AM.

INTERVIEWER: OK. Well, congratulations. And thank you, Paul Huttner.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.

INTERVIEWER: That was MPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, if you'd like to get more information about the incoming winter storm, you can always check out the Updraft blog. That's mprnews.org, or if you're on Twitter, follow us at MPRweather. And we also have the Instagram page too.