Potential record high temperatures in Minnesota this week — but will the warm weather last?

CATHY WURZER: You know, last week at this time, we were talking about snow in northwestern Minnesota, a lot of it. Gosh, that feels like so long ago, months ago. Because right now suddenly, it looks and feels like summer. MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner is with us right now for our regular Wednesday look at the weather.

Hey! Well, like typical Minnesota, weather whiplash here. So let's talk about the warm air. How warm today around the state?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're already 80. We just hit 80 in the last few seconds, Cathy, at Twin Cities Airport.

[CATHY CHEERS]

Yeah, there we go. And I'm forecasting a high of 85 today. That would be a record. The record is 83 for this afternoon, and we hit 81 yesterday. That was the warmest day in almost seven months, since September 20th, the first 80 since October 11th. So it took six months between October 11th and April 11th to hit 80 again in the Twin Cities.

And this is just what I would call ideal warming conditions, meteorologically speaking. You've got the sun, which is now higher and more potent in the sky. It's equal to about August 31st right now, that sun angle, in intensity.

The warmest air mass in seven months. We've got southwest winds, which are the warmest wind direction in Minnesota. And we've got drying of the soils now, believe it or not, pretty quickly. So that helps to warm up during the day. So that's why I think we'll get to about 85 today.

85 tomorrow again. Could be another record. The record is 84. This is Twin Cities numbers. 78 on Friday. Cathy, it's still chilly in northwest Minnesota, 44 in Fargo-Moorhead right now. But it's 61 in Duluth and 70 in Ely.

CATHY WURZER: You know, I do like warm weather, as you know. But then I'm looking at this forecast, and we're going to go drop pretty fast over the weekend. So you go from 80 to, like, what, 40-something?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, the cold front is going to come through Saturday morning early. Rainy and colder, 52 Saturday. Sunday, most of the models are saying we're dry. One model is teasing us with a little rain or snow chance, the one I trust the least, so I'm not ready to go there yet.

But 40s, I do believe in the colder temperatures. And we're in the 40s to 50s early next week. It looks like we could warm up again later next week.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Hey, let's talk about flood risk. Obviously we have a lot of snow that has melted or is melting. What's the latest on those river forecast levels?

PAUL HUTTNER: They are rising, and I just checked the North Central River Forecast Center's forecast. They're co-located with the Weather Service out in Chanhassen.

Let me give you a few quick ones. The headlines are, most of the snow has melted now across central and southern Minnesota. They're forecasting the St. Croix River to rise 10 feet in Stillwater between now and next Tuesday. That would put it at moderate to major flood stage there, Cathy.

The Mississippi in St. Paul, forecast to rise about eight feet-- that's moderate flood stage-- by early next week. The Red River at Fargo, forecast to rise 15 feet by next Tuesday. That puts it at moderate to major flood stage, a level right around 30 feet. Folks in Fargo know what that means.

And the St. Louis River at Scanlon, a little southwest of Duluth, forecast to rise about five feet. That would be moderate flood stage. And Cathy, there's still a good two to four feet of snow up on the hills above the North Shore. So that's going to melt quickly. Those rivers are going to be ripping over the next week or two.

CATHY WURZER: A waterfall season. That'll be cool along the North Shore, yeah. Let's talk about gardeners, of course. They've got their ears pricked up, listening to us here.

What are the last frost dates? There are certain dates, but I'm wondering because of the weather and this these 80-degree temperatures whether we're ahead of schedule.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, the average, if you look at the Twin Cities over long term, over the last 32 degrees, is April 25th, Cathy. And if you look at probabilities, there's a 90% chance we've seen our last 32 by May 10th.

Now, if you obviously go further north, that moves later. Frost is common in northeast Minnesota into June, as we know. But I really-- it's hard in any given year to say that the weather early in the spring is affecting what's happening later. It's just a function of the jet stream waving around.

So we could certainly have a later frost this year, but that long-term average is April 25th. I usually like to say by about the first week of May, at least in the Twin Cities, you're usually safe to plant.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Before you go, how about Climate Cast? What's the preview on that?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, well, we know-- you've heard of Minnesota solar garden programs. It actually produces-- and I did not know this-- 62% of the solar power produced in Minnesota is from these solar garden programs, 25,000-plus customers.

Well, the Minnesota House and Senate are working on changes in that to make, kind of expand it, make it bigger, maybe involve Xcel Energy. There's a lot going on there, so we're going to talk about that on Climate Cast tomorrow.

CATHY WURZER: OK. I appreciate your time today. Go out and enjoy the sun.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: See you later. Paul Huttner is MPR's chief meteorologist. By the way, you can listen to Paul and my friend Tom Crann during the afternoons 3:00 to 6:00 on All Things Considered. You can also find more details on the statewide forecast, Updraft blogs. Where do you find that? That's at mprnews.org.