Minnesota weather: lingering smoke, moderate conditions

CATHY WURZER: We're going to look out the window here in St Paul. And yep, it's still a little hazy again. Our air quality this year is really off to a bad start, one of the worst on record.

We're going to get more information on that air quality, as Todd mentioned, as well as the rest of the weather news from MPR's chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, Paul, how's it going?

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. It's going great for me. How are you today

CATHY WURZER: So far, so good Thank you very much. All right, so it's been smoky again. What the heck? What's the story on this?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this is becoming a theme again this year. 2021 was a really bad smoke year from wildfires in Minnesota. And we're right on pace with that again this year. Here's the big picture first, of what's going on. This is the worst wildfire season on record so far in Canada. They've burned over 8 million acres, 200-plus fires going right now.

And there's really two different source regions. So there's Northwest Canada, we've talked about that, Alberta. And then there's Eastern Canada, those fires in Quebec that you might have been seeing some news about this week. And what's happened is this big high pressure ridge has been parked over Southern Canada. Clockwise flow around it has pumped that smoke all the way around northern Canada into Quebec, and then the Quebec smoke back across the Great Lakes from east to west back into Minnesota. So we've been on the southern edge of that. And we're just getting wave after wave of smoke.

Now let's start with the good news. Today, the air quality has improved. It's good, really good, in the good range across Northeastern Minnesota, Central Minnesota, moderate range in the Twin Cities. So we're breathing easier today. But Cathy, there's another plume of smoke upstream that looks like it'll get here later today or tomorrow.

So we could see another air quality alert. That's what the pollution control agency is saying in their forecast discussion. And I looked at both, the near-surface smoke and what they call the vertically integrated smoke that tracks the smoke through elevation in the atmosphere. And the western edge of that plume looks like it'll ease into Minnesota, late tonight tomorrow, Eastern Minnesota. So we could see those air quality readings climb again.

By the way, it's important to note that there is a clear climate change connection here. There's good research that says the amount of wildfires have tripled in the Western North America since 1970, due to warmer, drier climates and just from the Journal of Environmental Research letters last month, that almost 40% of the burned acreage in the western part of North America can be directly attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. So I don't think it's a stretch to say this is part of what we say when we say, we see climate change in progress with these increased smoke days in Minnesota.

CATHY WURZER: So because you mentioned warm and dry conditions, let's talk a little bit about drought. Because there are large areas of Minnesota that are abnormally dry. So I'm wondering, are we heading into another drought?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and it might be another one of what we call these flash droughts, Cathy. That's when you get this combination of below average rainfall and above average temperatures and evaporation like we've had with lower dew points. We're running 14 degrees warmer than average in June. We were about 5 degrees warmer than average in May. And we're also running a precipitation deficit.

Since April 1st, we're down 3 and 1/2 inches below average on precipitation in the Twin Cities, much of Central Minnesota. Southwest Minnesota's been a little wetter. A lot of that came from one storm though, with 4 to 8 inches of rain.

But we're drying out quickly. And so this rapid descent into drought soils, both that and hydrologic drought rivers and lakes is happening again for the third straight year. And the forecast models, they don't give us a lot of hope for widespread significant rains. Most of them, the European model, the American model, the Canadian model saying less than half an inch in the next 10 days for most of Minnesota, maybe more in Western, Southwestern Minnesota.

That's a little hope for rainfall there, Cathy. But I'm concerned. This is the third straight summer that we've gone from fairly wet early in the year to just shut the faucet off as we head into June.

CATHY WURZER: And it kind of sneaks up a little bit. Because as you say, I mean, with record amounts of snow over the winter and then a fairly wet spring, and then boom, it just stops. And that is a concern, yeah.

PAUL HUTTNER: It is. You're absolutely right. So the farmers get going, they get a good planting going. And then they just watch as their fields begin to dry out.

CATHY WURZER: Yikes. All right, so as you mentioned, rainfall chances this week and weekend are not great. What would be something positive to talk about here? Daylight, daylight, bright days?

PAUL HUTTNER: Sure. And you know, the weather is great. I mean, our forecast is great if you want to be out and about. So that's certainly positive. It's just we have these underlying themes.

But yeah, it's these are the brightest four weeks of the year, Cathy, the longest daylight. Summer solstice, two weeks from today. Can you believe that already, June 21? 9:58 AM, 15 hours and 36 minutes of daylight. And we'll stay at 15 hours or longer right through July 24.

So this is the time, Minnesota, we've been waiting for. Get out and enjoy these long evenings, the long daylight. And the weather looks good. 80 today, tomorrow in the Twin Cities, 83 on Friday. A couple of scattered thundershowers favoring Western Minnesota, west of the Twin Cities today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Scattered thundershowers again, Saturday, but maybe only 30% coverage, 80. And then sunny Sunday and 75. Next week, mid to upper 80s. So our weather pattern is glorious. We just need to sneak some rain in there now and then.

CATHY WURZER: Yeah that'd be nice. Climate Cast is coming up. What are you going to talk about this week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, John Abraham over at the University of Saint Thomas, co-author of a recent paper on record, Ocean Heat Content Around the Globe, the numbers are just off the charts for water temperatures in the oceans, Cathy. And that has impacts for hurricane season. It can produce stronger hurricanes with that rapid intensification.

It can boost our air temperatures globally. This could be one of the warmest years on record again. And it could fuel that El Nino, maybe into a super El Nino, which can have impacts on our winters in Minnesota. So that's Climate Cast tomorrow during All Things Considered in the afternoon.

CATHY WURZER: Wow, you got a lot going on. OK, thank you, Paul Huttner.

PAUL HUTTNER: It's my pleasure. Thanks so much, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: As always, thank you. It's my pleasure too. Paul Huttner, our chief meteorologist here at MPR News. Of course, you hear him in the afternoon with Tom Crann on All Things Considered.

And always check out updated forecasts. Get some really great scientific information about the weather and climate by going to the Updraft blog. You find that at nprnews.org.