Wednesday weather update: Chance of severe storms and heat on the horizon

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: And the weather is our top story. There's a risk of severe weather in parts of the state today and a major heat wave is on the horizon. Of course, MPR chief meteorologist Paul Huttner has the latest on what's going to happen. He joins us right now.

Hey, good to have you with us again.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, good to be here, Zee. I'm on Doppler watch today.

CATHY WURZER: I bet you are. Well, let's talk a little bit about what we had earlier this morning. I mean, it was just garden variety stuff mostly on the radar. And it looks like there's still some rain in Northeastern Minnesota. How is this severe weather scenario setting up at this point?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's a low pressure system that's kind of waddling through Northern Minnesota today. It's fairly weak, but it's dragging a cold front across the state. So we had that first wave last night. In South Dakota, those storms produced some tremendous wind gusts, over 60 miles an hour, and some hail.

But that front will fire up again later this afternoon and produce some scattered thunderstorms. And there is a risk for severe weather. It's a marginal risk of basically Little Falls, Brainerd, Northern Minnesota, but a slight risk, which is the next highest category, from Saint Cloud over to Hinckley, down through the Twin Cities, Farmington, Mankato, Rochester, Fairmont, Austin, all the way to the border with Iowa and into Northern Iowa, and then into Western Wisconsin as well, Rice Lake, Eau Claire, those areas, slight risk later today.

Here's what looks like it'll happen. The storms will begin to form in scattered fashion this afternoon north of the Twin Cities. So northern Minnesota, you'll have a little more coverage today with storms again. There's already thunderstorms around and north of the Duluth area. And Twin Cities, a little more isolated coverage. But the storms that do form, Cathy, the atmosphere will be strong enough, with dew points in the 60s, climbing through the 60s, and temperatures in the upper 80s, that we could see some of them turn severe. And it looks like large hail today will be one of the threats. Could be 2 inches in diameter in some spots. And damaging wind potential is there as well, 60 to 70 mile per hour winds in the storms that do form.

I expect we'll see watches and warnings later this afternoon, so keep an eye out for that. It could get kind of active out there. Twin Cities timing, probably between about 5:00 and 8:00 or 9:00 tonight for the chance for storms. And again, they'll be scattered. Not everyone will see a storm. But if you get under one, it could be strong to severe this evening.

CATHY WURZER: 2 inch hailstones, the potential for-- that's like what, that's not a-- is that a softball?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's a little bigger than golf ball, not quite baseball. So potentially, if we get some golf ball or larger size hail with these updrafts that we have today. And so the updrafts lift that. And they can be 100 miles an hour going up. They lift the moisture up, make hail, and then eventually it gets tossed out of the storm.

CATHY WURZER: Wow. If we get rain, though, that would obviously help. at least a little bit, toward the drought.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it would, if it were more widespread, I would say. I mean, we'll take a half an inch or an inch of rain, anybody that can get one right now. But we really, really are running some big rainfall deficits now.

I looked at the numbers and added them up. We are running over a 5-inch rainfall deficit now just in the Twin Cities for June and July, 5.2 inches below what we should have seen. This is basically, the last six weeks, our wettest period of the year on average. Hasn't happened this year.

So we're way behind on drought. The models are saying we're not going to get a lot of rain over the next 10 days. The European model's saying maybe 1 to 3 inches in northern Minnesota, but that's over 10 days, a half an inch or less in most of the South. But again, these scattered storms, we could get some locally heavier totals with that.

So NOAA has kind of a drought forecast, and they're forecasting the drought to persist and deepen across Minnesota. So boy, I wish I had better news there, Cathy. But it's the third consecutive year of what we call flash drought, where this thing comes on really quickly and just sets in.

CATHY WURZER: I'm going to assume then, with this heat wave that's on the horizon, it's going to make things worse.

PAUL HUTTNER: It will, I think. I don't see a lot of rain next week either. And that southwestern heat dome looks like it's going to migrate into the northern US next week, the upper air pattern shifting and this persistent ridge of high pressure setting up over us. That means a string of 90s looking more likely by the day. Some of the models, Cathy, are saying 95 to 100 in the Dakotas, maybe even parts of Minnesota. The European model I just looked at is printing out 100 degrees for the Twin Cities next Wednesday. We'll see if it gets that hot. But I do think mid 90s are quite likely and the dew points will come up. So it's going to be hot and steamy, it looks like, most of next week.

CATHY WURZER: OK. So--

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, at least the air quality is good.

CATHY WURZER: Always looking for the silver lining, Paul Huttner, I love that. What's on Climate Cast? I'm curious.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, climate smart trees. How about that? Rapid climate changes in northern Minnesota. Of course, we know the forests are changing up there. We'll talk with some experts from the University of Minnesota. Those trees that are dying from stress, they're being replaced. There's a project to plant trees, like white pines from the Twin Cities that are more resilient to climate change up in northern Minnesota, places like the Boundary Waters. So we'll talk about that tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.

CATHY WURZER: And by the way, for folks who might have just tuned in, again, a recap. Severe weather is possible here late this afternoon. Best way to get weather warnings?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Of course, here on Minnesota Public Radio News, your National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Radio is a great spot. Most people are getting phone alerts now, which is great. Expect a watch to be posted, possible warnings later today, especially after about 3:00, 4:00, Cathy, into the evening hours.

CATHY WURZER: All right. I know you're going to be busy. Rest up. Thanks much.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Zee.

CATHY WURZER: That was MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner.