Second summer? Fall heat wave brings 90s to parts of Minnesota

CATHY WURZER: Say, friends, we are bringing summer back for a week. Every year, it seems these warmer temperatures creep back in. Some call it second summer, right between fall's fall and actual fall. MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner is with us right now. Hey, welcome.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. Good to talk to you, Cathy. Yeah, it's kind of an endless summer this year.

CATHY WURZER: I, of course, appreciate that. But somewhere along the line, reality will, of course, insert itself. So how warm has it been so far this month?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. We're running 3.2 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota so far in September. And this is our fifth straight warmer-than-average month in Minnesota and the Twin Cities. So it is kind of a super-sized summer.

If you go back to May, right through September, all those months average about 3.2 degrees warmer than average total. So we really had, what, the fourth or fifth warmest summer on record around most of Minnesota this summer. And the first five days of this month, you may remember, were 90-plus, Cathy.

And we had 32 days of 90-degree heat this year. And that's the sixth most on record. Of course, that record year was 1988 with 44 days. So by all metrics, pretty much, this has been a very respectable summer. Lots of Wurzer weather this year in Minnesota.

CATHY WURZER: That is very true. I was a little surprised to see-- was it Madison, Minnesota, yesterday was in the 90s? There were several places in the 90s.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Yeah, they hit 95. They snuck up to 95 yesterday, just two shy of the record yesterday.

CATHY WURZER: Oh my gosh. OK. What's happening in the rest of the week?

PAUL HUTTNER: So this summery air mass is here through Thursday at least. We'll hit 85, I think, in the Twin Cities today. They may touch 90 again in Southwest Minnesota. Tomorrow, still warm, about 81.

And then we're going to watch a slow-moving, low-pressure system creep in from the west. So that'll mean scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday, Saturday, I think especially Saturday night for the Twin Cities, and then into Sunday. So we're watching that system come in. Fingers are crossed, Cathy. The computer models are starting to crank out some pretty decent rainfall with that system.

CATHY WURZER: Really? How much, do you think?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, the models are saying that overall, it'll be more widespread-- an inch, much of Minnesota, the Dakotas, but really cranking out a lot of one- to three-inch totals, especially favoring Western Minnesota. The models have gone back and forth between, will that get as far east as the Twin Cities or will it be Western Minnesota and then in the Dakotas, some of the forecast models-- and they've been pretty consistent-- saying three, four, five inches of rain in the Dakotas. And some of that could creep into Western Minnesota.

So I was just looking at some of the model runs that just came in here in the midday hours. And they're still saying about an inch of rain in the Twin Cities, but maybe a sharper cutoff as you move east. But just soaking, drenching rains, Western Minnesota-- one to three inches possible this weekend. And boy, we could really use that, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Wow. It won't ease the drought, of course. I mean, it would help. But it's not going to erase the drought.

PAUL HUTTNER: Three inches will help, for sure. I mean, it's not going to erase the drought. But it'll certainly help soils recharge a little bit, maybe some of the ponds. Boy, I don't know if you've noticed, but a lot of the ponds are just nearly drying up around my area. And that's a sign that our surface water is way behind. 8 to 10 inches, rainfall deficits this year, Cathy, around much of Minnesota.

CATHY WURZER: Oh, that is so concerning. Speaking of the dry weather, I was driving up north over the weekend to see Mom. And I was thinking to myself, jeez, I mean, it looks like the fall color has just [SNAPS] gone like that. And I was wondering, is it tree stress because of the lack of rain? Or is fall truly encroaching here at a rapid rate?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I think it's a couple of things. Obviously, they react to daylight, right? We're losing that daylight. And we had those freezes up north this last week. So the colors have really started to pop in Northern Minnesota.

But you're right. Most of the DNR folks that specialize in this say that the drought years can stress the trees out. Of course, they've done a little better on rainfall in Northeast Minnesota. But that can stress the trees too.

So I'm seeing right now fall colors, 25% to 50% of color up north, through much of Northern Minnesota. Still about 10% to 25% here in the Twin Cities and South. I'm seeing a couple of maples start to pop here around the weather lab, Cathy.

But it's still mostly green. And of course, that peak from now through around really early October up north, more like mid-September, late September to mid-October here in the Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota, Cathy. And of course, that fall equinox, Saturday.

CATHY WURZER: What?

PAUL HUTTNER: 1:50 AM.

CATHY WURZER: Oh.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes.

CATHY WURZER: No.

PAUL HUTTNER: You believe that? Already the fall equinox.

CATHY WURZER: Soon, my friend, we'll be talking--

PAUL HUTTNER: It's coming.

CATHY WURZER: --about winter. But we cannot utter that word right now. We'll just enjoy the nice weather. Oh, my goodness.

PAUL HUTTNER: The natives are happy for now. We'll wait and see what happens in about two or three months.

CATHY WURZER: You're right. All right. Thank you, Mr. Huttner.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, you can listen to Paul and Tom Crann every afternoon, All Things Considered, here in the afternoon, 3:00 until 6:00. And check out the Updraft blog. You can find that, this updated information on the forecast, and other cool stuff, cool weather stuff at mprnews.org.