Huttner: Significant rain on the way

CATHY WURZER: We've had some very nice cool fall temperatures, maybe a little chilly for some of us. Many of you have even probably gotten a little-- some frost, especially this morning, right, on the roof, on your windshield, on your pumpkins. We could be adding rain to the mix. That's true. Joining us right now is MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Hey, welcome back.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy, thanks, and happy sunny Wednesday, at least in the Twin Cities-- a few clouds up north, but nice to see that sunshine this time of year.

CATHY WURZER: It is pretty. It is pretty. I hope you folks can go out and enjoy the sun today because things go downhill by the end of tomorrow.

PAUL HUTTNER: They do, quickly.

CATHY WURZER: Yes, yes, quickly. We'll talk about that in just a moment. First, let's begin to talk about the frost. So I'm assuming almost every corner of Minnesota has had some frost at this point, right?

PAUL HUTTNER: And you'd be right about that. Now, we've hit 38 at MSP Airport the last three mornings. So the inner Twin Cities core-- St. Paul about the same-- probably escaped a frost this week, or at least a heavy frost.

But I know we had frost here in the suburbs at The Weather Lab. Lakeville hit 28 this morning. And most of Minnesota has seen temperatures around or near or below freezing this week. So we've probably ended the growing season in most of Minnesota.

Twin Cities at the airport were running 169 days since the last time we hit freezing on April 25. That's a little longer than average, nowhere near the record yet of 221 days set in 2016. And I noticed the fall colors, Cathy-- 20% to 75% now in the Twin Cities. It's at or past peak up north.

CATHY WURZER: Mm-hmm. Say, what's the right recipe for frost?

PAUL HUTTNER: So atmospherically speaking, you need clear skies, light winds, and long nights, right? And we're getting longer nights now this time of year. So when those dew points get down, upper 20s, low 30s, the atmosphere cools once the sun goes down. We all know that. We call that radiational cooling. And that's a perfect setup for us to get frost, and we've had that for this week.

CATHY WURZER: All right. So let's talk about this rain system. It looks pretty significant.

PAUL HUTTNER: It looks promising if you're trying to end a drought. That's for sure. Boy, if we can keep getting these storms about once a week here before freezeup, that would be nice.

So this is a slow moving low-pressure system. It's going to track through Iowa on Friday. That's a good track for significant rain-- Iowa, Southern Central Minnesota. It looks like it'll begin overnight or early tomorrow morning Southwest Minnesota, spread across Southern Minnesota.

Twin Cities, probably midday into the afternoon hours is when we'll notice the rain picking up here. And I think everywhere south of a line from about, well, Fergus Falls to Brainerd over to Duluth-- kind of a crooked line-- that's where the bulk of the rain will be. And most of the forecast models are saying this will be widespread significant rain-- a lot of 1-to-2-inch totals in Central Minnesota, 1 to 3, Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota, even some 4-inch totals locally.

So this will be significant. This could put another little dent in the drought, maybe knock back a couple of categories. I noticed Washington County in the far eastern Twin Cities is out of drought. They went into "abnormally dry."

If this storm dumps a couple, 2, 3 inches of rain, it might take Washington County out of drought. Some of the rest of the Twin Cities has further to go. But this certainly helps, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Good. I'm so glad to hear that. I thought I saw the S word in the forecast for some portions of the region. I thought it was the North Shore. I thought I saw "snow showers." Would that be right or wrong?

PAUL HUTTNER: There might be a few, but I don't see anything significant looking out for the next few days. And when we start talking about snow, the average first inch in the Twin Cities is November 18. So we can take a deep breath. Usually, we're not going to get snow this early. But it certainly can happen this time of year.

We average 54 inches of snow in a winter. Of course, last winter, we know we had 90 inches in the Twin Cities. So I'm guessing we'll be closer to that 54-inch average or maybe a little lower this year. We'll see how this strong El Niño winter pans out.

CATHY WURZER: OK. So I was out on a patio yesterday with a friend. I was just a little chilly. But she has some health issues and doesn't want to be around COVID. So we were out on a patio.

And I mention this because she was saying, gosh, do you think there's going to be any more warm weather where we could do this, or we're going to be forced inside? And what do you say to her?

PAUL HUTTNER: I would say late next week could be another patio day. It looks like we could warm back up into the 60s. In the Twin Cities, southern and western Minnesota, it looks like maybe mid- to upper 60s-- can't rule out a 70 sometime late next week. We might have a few more patio days ahead, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: OK. I'm glad to hear that. Thank you. There's a solar eclipse, I understand, this weekend?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it occurs on Saturday. It's a partial solar eclipse. The sun will be 46% covered in Minnesota, the Twin Cities.

It's going to be mostly cloudy, but it begins around 10:30, ends around 1:11, peaks around 11:48. If you really want to go see this one, you may have to get out to the Black Hills or Western Nebraska. It looks like that's where the closest clear skies will be.

It'll be total from Eugene, Oregon, down through Utah to Albuquerque, New Mexico. But interesting to note, Cathy-- we have another chance next April 8, a 74% total solar eclipse-- well, 74% covered, the sun, in the Twin Cities. But that one will be total from Ohio through Illinois, Indiana, down to Missouri and Arkansas.

And after that, the next one is 20 years. So you might want to make plans to get out and see that one.

CATHY WURZER: Are you saying that you can already pinpoint a solar eclipse for next spring?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, that's astronomy. So it's precise geometry and the way the sun and the moon and the Earth-- excuse me, move. And so the astronomers are able to calculate those paths, really, to pinpoint areas. So interesting the way that works, but, yeah, I'm even thinking I would like to go southeast and see that next April.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Maybe it's a Morning Edition Minnesota Now field trip or something like that.

PAUL HUTTNER: Perfect. Love it.

CATHY WURZER: Include All Things Considered-- we'll take Crann with us. It'll be good.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, it'll be lovely.

CATHY WURZER: [LAUGHS] Before you go, what about a climate cast this week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so there was an interesting piece in Time recently that says why the Midwest is growing as a climate migration destination. It turns out our stable climate, water resources, lower insurance costs-- Cathy, I've talked to folks who have property in Florida that got a 40% insurance increase this year, just this year, 40%.

That's happening in California. People are finding it hard to even get insurance in these forested areas, that wildfire threat, and also along the coast in hurricane country. So we'll talk about that on Climate Cast tomorrow afternoon.

CATHY WURZER: Oh my gosh. All right. Paul Huttner, always a pleasure. Thank you.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's our chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, you can listen to Paul and Tom Crann, All Things Considered, in the afternoons here on MPR News. And, of course, with the latest weather information, Updraft Blog, you find that at mprnews.org.