Wednesday weather: Snow in the forecast and the storm that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald

NINA MOINI: All right. Let's talk about your weather forecast. We're losing daylight. We're inching closer to winter. We do have a chance for some snow in the forecast. So joining me now with the latest and a little weather history is MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks for being with us, as always, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, it's my pleasure. Hope you're enjoying this sunny, beautiful November day out there.

NINA MOINI: I really am, and I'm kind of wondering how long it's going to last every day. I'm kind of on pins and needles, but trying to enjoy it. But let's talk a little bit of history first, Paul. So next week marks 50 years, wow, of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald. And so you've taken a look back at the storm that sunk the Fitz. And what are you finding?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. And there are those storms you remember as a meteorologist that are indelibly impressed on your mind. I was 14, Nina, when that storm happened, and we had just done a trip around Lake Superior that summer. And I remember Dave Moore, old WCCO TV colleague, that night of the storm, telling us that the Edmund Fitzgerald had sunk. It was like the biggest chill that went down my spine because the winds were just howling, even in the Twin Cities that night.

And weather forecasting has come a long way in 50 years, right? The initial forecast for that storm was just kind of a gale warning with 40 to 50 mile an hour winds when the Fitz left port. And then it rapidly intensified. It got much stronger. It became the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in about a day and a half, and those winds gusted as high as 86 miles an hour.

Now, there are a couple of things that could have saved the Fitz. So one of them is the route they took. Because those winds were out of the northeast, they took a more northerly route and headed for the Canadian shore, which would have sheltered them because those winds were coming offshore. They were closer than shore.

But because the storm moved so fast and went by and so deep, the winds shifted around into the northwest, and that's when those waves ran the full fetch of Lake Superior and caught them on the stern as they were headed down toward Whitefish Bay. And those waves may have been as high as 30 to 40 feet because they kind superimpose on themselves, and you call it the Three Sisters. They may have had 40 foot waves and 86 mile an hour winds.

Now, if they'd gone the southerly route, they might have made it into Whitefish Bay a little earlier. But the weather forecasts just were not as accurate. We only had what we call three grid points over Lake Superior for the forecast models back in the day. Today, there are over 400, so it's hundreds of times more resolution. Today's forecast likely would have saved the Fitz. They could have stayed in port, or they could have gone earlier and taken that more southerly route, Nina. So just a tragedy of course. A scary time for us that remember that storm.

NINA MOINI: And a mystery to this day. I do want to if 14-year-old Paul Huttner loved the weather yet, or if that was still coming.

PAUL HUTTNER: 14-year-old Paul Huttner was hooked by then. I was, of course, hooked back in the 1965 tornado. So I got to tell you, though, what a scary night that was with the storm.

NINA MOINI: Yeah. So moving on to present day, what are you expecting through the weekend?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It looks not too bad, but definitely colder as we head through the next few days. So we've got the sunshine out there now. It's a nice November day. We'll hit 54 in the Twin Cities today. We're already in the 50s, 40s up in northern Minnesota. And then tomorrow, still some more clouds, 53, 40s. We'll cool off gradually.

Friday, there is a clipper on the maps for Saturday. It looks like it will go towards southwest Minnesota and bring a little bit of snow. Southwest, south central Minnesota, maybe along I-90, maybe some light accumulations. Doesn't look like a big deal. Chance of rain or snow showers in the Twin Cities, Nina. No big deal. But it's going to feel wintry this weekend. Highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s early in the morning. So button up this weekend.

NINA MOINI: Yeah. How about next week? We'll already be basically in mid-November.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It looks chilly on Monday. We're still in the 30s, but we moderate again next week. It looks like we'll hit 50 again or in the 50s next Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. So we're not falling off a cliff into winter just yet.

NINA MOINI: And remind us, Paul. How much snow do we typically get in a November? Because I remember November as being pretty snowy.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It's several inches of snow on average, about eight or nine inches. And the first inch on average for the Twin Cities occurs-- average date is November 18. So we're getting into that season. I don't see anything huge for the Twin Cities just yet, but we might get a little snow in southern Minnesota, southwest Minnesota, on Saturday.

NINA MOINI: OK. And before I let you go, Paul, remind us what is on Climate Cast this week.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. There are these things called microclimates, Nina, and your trees like them. Certain trees like certain kinds of microclimates. I'll talk with a tree expert about what homeowners can do to plant the right kind of trees in their yard so they'll do very well in certain microclimates. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast.

NINA MOINI: Good to know. All right. Thanks, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Nina.

NINA MOINI: That's MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner.