Cruising toward Thanksgiving, Minnesota still without significant snow

NINA MOINI: Well, whether we like it or not, we're creeping toward December, and we've had our fair share of darker, shorter days. I've been noticing those recently. But there's just one thing we're missing, and that's snow. The entire state has seen barely any flakes so far this season. So here to chat about our later kickoff to the snowy season is MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Thanks for being with us, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, always a pleasure, Nina. Happy gray November day to you.

NINA MOINI: It has been pretty gray. It might be nice to see some flakes falling soon. I'm not a huge fan, but I'm wondering how late are we into the season here getting some snow. How does this compare?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it's been a slow start to the snow season this year. We normally have had our first inch of snow in the Twin Cities as of yesterday. November 18th is the average date for that. But so far, just a trace, that's all we've had at Twin Cities Airport, and if you look at what we should have had through the month of November, it's 6.8 inches. That's the average at the airport. So we're running about three to four inches behind pace here in the Twin Cities.

Duluth even more. They've only had 3/10 of an inch up in Duluth you have. The normal's 10.3 by now so 10 inches behind the normal in Duluth. Yeah, this is a slow and lingering autumn, Nina. I'm not sure too many are complaining, but we know there's a lot of snow lovers in Minnesota.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, what should we keep in mind though because winter, it'll come?

PAUL HUTTNER: It will. And there's a couple changes in terms that you're going to hear this year from the National Weather Service. Remember those wind chill watches and warnings, those are out now. They've changed the way they're going to describe that. They're trying to simplify the language.

In is extreme cold watch and warning. So when we get wind chills of 35 below or colder, they're going to issue an extreme cold watch or warning. And we'll still talk about wind chill and gauge it because Minnesotans are pretty used to gauging how they feel by the wind chill out there. So watch for those extreme cold watches and warnings this winter. Hopefully, we don't get too many of them.

NINA MOINI: Do you like that change, Paul? I'm just curious to know because it was confusing, I guess.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, I'm always a fan of when the National Weather Service tries to clarify some of their terminology. They literally have hundreds of different advisories I think for the Twin Cities, Minnesota, there was something like 120 different types of advisories. So, yeah, if they can simplify and sift them out a little bit and make that communication clearer, I think that's always a good thing.

NINA MOINI: OK. And are you seeing any snow in sight as you're looking ahead to the weekend and beyond?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. I tell you what, the forecast looks pretty interesting. Right now, of course, just damp and November gray and chilly out there. It's drizzly as we go especially north of the Twin Cities. Even a little snizzly, a little snow mixed in.

I'm looking at the webcams in Ely, Minnesota, Sheridan Street, Whiteside Park. The streets are wet up there, a couple of random snowflakes here and there. But for most of us, we'll just be in the 40s today, damp and drizzly. Tomorrow the sun will come out in the afternoon. It's 50 degrees in the Twin Cities later.

And then sunshine returns Friday through Sunday so a pretty nice weekend-- 46 Friday, 52 Saturday, 50 on Sunday. And then we get into Thanksgiving week, which is I think what you're asking about.

NINA MOINI: Sure.

PAUL HUTTNER: The Monday and Tuesday look good for travel. Mild. It will be mostly in the-- we might hit 50 again in the Twin Cities Tuesday.

NINA MOINI: Wow.

PAUL HUTTNER: But then the change comes. Much colder Wednesday into Thanksgiving, a big cold front comes down. Highs will be in the 20s, lows down in the teens, maybe even single digits. I think you'll be able to keep the beverages on the porch this Thanksgiving. Just make sure they don't freeze.

But there is the potential on the models today. I've noticed this this morning in the runs, a snow chance emerging for later on Thanksgiving weekend, maybe Saturday into Sunday. Stay tuned because that's 10 days out, Nina, so that's still a big maybe.

NINA MOINI: Sure.

PAUL HUTTNER: But the models are leaning that there is a potential for some snow as we head through the tail end of Thanksgiving weekend.

NINA MOINI: It's always good to be prepared honestly, but let us know what's on Climate Cast this week, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we're going to talk about these winter snowfall trends in Minnesota with Kenny Blumenfeld from the Minnesota State Climate Office. It is much warmer in Minnesota in winter, more than 5 degrees on average since 1970, but that's still cold enough for snow. And we're actually getting heavier snows and wetter snows in Minnesota, so we'll break that down on Climate Cast tomorrow during All Things Considered.

NINA MOINI: All right, Paul, thanks so much.

PAUL HUTTNER: My pleasure. Thanks, Nina.

NINA MOINI: That was MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.