High Bust Potential

I don't like this weekend's potential storm system.

Meteorologists like nice neat little packages when forecasting a storm. This pre-Christmas weather gift looks like a 2 year old wrapped it. The NWS folks in Chanhassen aptly called it "problematic" in their early morning forecast discussion.

Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion

At least the computers agree on a "split" solution to the "storm" with northern and southern branches. This should prevent the potential blizzard scenario some of the models painted earlier in the week.

The NAM model, which stubbornly predicted a stronger more compact storm, has finally come into line with the GFS's thinking about two separate centers. Now the NAM is hinting that the northern stream may stall enough to keep snow going most of Saturday and let a few inches pile up from Duluth to the Twin Cities. The GFS is not impressed, keeping the system "progressive" and hinting at limited snowfall amounts in the metro to an inch or two, with a bit more up north.

I still like the GFS solution for now, but I don't like the looks of this one. This is literally one system that the outcome could range from just flurries in the metro, to five inches or more.

That's what we call a forecast with "high bust potential."

Stay tuned....


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