Forecast: Drought busting rains?

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NOAA rainfall forecasts show a 3 inch bull's eye over central Minnesota this week.

A pattern shift in the upper atmosphere is bringing rain back into the Minnesota weather forecast. A series of upper air waves and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will trigger showers and thunderstorms this week. Forecast models indicate parts of our drought stricken region could recieve over an inch of rain this week, with as much as 3 inches in some local areas.

This would be a departure from the extremely dry pattern in place since April 1st. Many locations in the central part of the Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are up to 4 inches below average rainfall in the past 3 months.

An inch of rain this week will not alleviate drought conditions. But if some areas receive 2 or 3 inches of rain, that would go a long way toward easing short term agricultural drought, and could boost lake and river levels at least temporarily.

The drought has also led to a lack of severe weather. The Twin Cities National Weather Service has not issued any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings this year. This is the latest such occurance.

Forecast game update:

Thanks to all of you who entered my little forecast game for next Monday June 22nd. The medium range model runs (especially the GFS) over the weekend indicate little run to run consistency. The European Model (ECMWF) still likes the idea of building a heat dome over the central U.S. with Minnesota on the northern edge of the heat on Father's Day. The GFS is backing off a bit, but still indicates we could push close to 90 in southern Minnesota for Sunday.

So far the GFS has not returned to the high amplitude ridge that it showed a week ago. Let's see how things evolve this week as the models begin to handle short term trends better.