2009: Likely the 5th warmest year on record
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Global temperatures so far in 2009 show a cool trend in the Upper Midwest, while most of the globe runs above average. (Source: NOAA's Climatic Data Center)
The numbers are in for November from NOAA's Climatic Data Center.
Global temperatures for November (combined land and ocean) were 1.08 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. That makes November the 4th warmest on record in the past 130 years.
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It appears even more likely now that 2009 will go down as the 5th warmest year on record since 1880. Global average temperatures are expected to close the year at about 1.01 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.
If 2009 finishes as the 5th warmest year on record as expected, that means 9 of the past 10 years are all in the top 10 warmest years on record globally. In fact, the past 9 years in a row are among the top 10 warmest years on record since 1880.
Global Top 10
Warm Years (Jan-Dec) Anomaly °C Anomaly °F
2005 0.61 1.10
1998 0.60 1.08
2003 0.58 1.04
2002 0.57 1.03
2009* 0.56* 1.01*
2006 0.56 1.01
2007 0.55 0.99
2004 0.54 0.97
2001 0.52 0.94
2008 0.48 0.86
*Value estimated using ten (January-October) months of data. This table will be updated by mid-January. (Source: NOAA's NCDC)
The decade of the 2000's will go down as the warmest decade since modern records began in 1880.
The implications of another "top 10 warmest" year are considerable. 2009 (+1.01F) will come in warmer than 2008 (+0.86F) and 2007 (+0.99F). Many have tried to suggest that the earth is in a cooling phase. While you cannot look at one year of data as a climate trend, a warmer 2009 certainly does not support claims of a multi-year global cooling trend.
It is still remarkable that 2009 will go down as yet another top 10 warmest year in the global surface record. While climate systems do not behave randomly, it is still amazing to me that we have not had one cooler than average year globally since 1984.
Even with climate, you might expect enough random variability to produce at least one cooler than average year in the past 25 years. We have been through several El Nino and La Nina phases since 1984. This strongly suggests that some much stronger climate forcing is at work.
It will be interesting to see what 2010 brings.
PH