Updated 90 Day Outlook: Milder than average
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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 90 Day Outlook shows a higher possibility of warmer than average temperatures over the northern U.S.
That's their story and they're sticking to it.
NOAA's CPC released updated 90 day outlooks today for temperatures and precipitation. Though much of the country is experiencing cooler than average weather so far in December, the NOAA outlooks favor above average temperatures in the northern tier of states.
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My observations and discussions with experts in ENSO, like Dr. Kevin Trenberth who heads up NCAR's Climate Analysis Division, suggest that the effects of El Nino often increase in the second half of winter. Translation; we have a better chance of shifting into above average temperature trends from January into March.
Today's discussion from CPC emphasizes this point.
"CURRENTLY MODERATE EL NINO CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF 2010. THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF THE MODERATE EL NINO EVENT SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCES THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JFM THROUGH MAM 2010. THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS USUALLY GREATEST DURING THE LATE WINTER SEASON."
It should be noted that the chances of a milder than average winter season in Minnesota is about 71% in moderate El Nino years. There have been cooler than average winters around the region. There have also been winters where one month is below average, and two months are above average. The trends observed also are seasonal averages, and we can still certainly have bitter arctic outbreaks during the winter season. 20-below can happen in El Nino winters.
It will be interesting to see if the polar front jet stream shifts northward into southern Canada in January and February.
While temperature trends favor milder conditions in El Nino winters, snowfall trends do not show any statistical correlation in the Upper Midwest. Average winter season snowfall for the Twin Cities is 55.9".
The southern states do tend to show above average rainfall.
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