Big Picture: Top 10 flood year on area rivers
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As the potentially good news of a lower crest forecast for the Red River at Fargo sinks in Friday, a look at the big picture shows this is already an historic flood year in the Upper Midwest.
This will be the top 5 to 10 flood of record for many area rivers. Some locations, like the Crow River at Cosmos and Mayer have set the 1st or 2nd flood of record for those locations.
Here are some forecast river crests and where this year's flood level falls historically.
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Friday's level: 16.52' = 2nd highest flood of record.
Historical Crests
(1) 19.23 ft on 04/13/1965
(2) 16.50 ft on 04/14/2001
(3) 16.48 ft on 04/11/1969
(4) 16.05 ft on 04/07/1997
(5) 16.00 ft on 06/23/1957
(6) 15.70 ft on 04/10/1952
(7) 13.93 ft on 05/04/1986
(8) 13.90 ft on 04/30/1975
(9) 13.76 ft on 04/05/1979
(10) 13.59 ft on 03/29/1982
Forecast crest 37.5' = 5th highest flood of record.
Historical Crests
(1) 40.84 ft on 03/28/2009
(2) 40.10 ft on 04/07/1897
(3) 39.57 ft on 04/17/1997
(4) 37.80 ft on 04/11/1882
(5) 37.34 ft on 04/15/1969
(6) 37.13 ft on 04/05/2006
(7) 36.69 ft on 04/14/2001
(8) 35.39 ft on 04/09/1989
(9) 34.93 ft on 04/19/1979
(10) 34.65 ft on 04/16/1952
Forecast crest: 717.3' = 7th highest flood of record.
Historical Crests
(1) 721.80 ft on 04/15/1965
(2) 719.70 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 719.29 ft on 06/25/1993
(4) 718.10 ft on 04/19/2001
(5) 717.86 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 717.40 ft on 04/29/2001
(7) 716.20 ft on 04/16/1952
(8) 714.38 ft on 04/14/1951
(9) 709.70 ft on 06/22/2001
(10) 708.40 ft on 04/07/1998
Mississippi River at St. Paul:
Forecast crest: 19.8' = 7th highest flood of record.
Historical Crests
(1) 26.40 ft on 04/16/1965
(2) 25.00 ft on 04/15/1969
(3) 23.76 ft on 04/18/2001
(4) 23.60 ft on 04/30/2001
(5) 22.90 ft on 04/13/1997
(6) 21.90 ft on 04/16/1952
(7) 19.65 ft on 06/26/1993
(8) 17.90 ft on 04/16/1951
(9) 16.30 ft on 05/16/1986
(10) 15.46 ft on 06/29/1957
So why was this a record flood year for so many locations?
-Deep snowpack exceeded 2 feet in much of west and southwest Minnesota. Anywhere from 4" to 8" of water content was stored in the snow pack. This area is the headwaters for the Red, Minnesota and Crow Rivers. Both the Crow and Minnesota feed the Mississippi before they reach St. Paul.
February 18th DNR snow cover analysis shows deep snow in western and southern Minnesota.
-The rainfall in early March exceed half an inch in many location. Rainfall is the quickest way to melt snow cover, and trigger rapid runoff into area watersheds.
-Finally record and near record temperatures some 20 degrees above average kicked in to continue rapid snow melt. The warm weather in the past 10 days or so sealed the deal for area rivers. The Twin Cities is running a full 9.9 degrees above average for March through the first 18 days.
PH
