Thursday Winter Storm targets SW MN; Sunday track changes?

Winter Storm Watches & Warnings posted for southern Minnesota & northern Iowa

4" to 7" snowfall possible in southwest Minnesota Thursday

Sharp snowfall cutoff on the system's northern edge

Flurries at most for metro

Sunday storm track trending north - watching for more changes

Winter Storm Thursday!

Here we go!

The next winter storm is moving through mainly SW Minnesota Thursday.

-Latest Twin Cities radar loop

-Latest Sioux Falls radar loop

The Alberta Clipper type system looks like an efficient snow producer. It's already produced lightning strikes in Montana, a sign of strong upward lift and potential heavy snowfall rates.

From Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion:

THERE IS ALREADY A LIGHTNING STRIKE UPSTREAM IN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.

and...

LOOK OF POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE QUESTION TODAY HAS NOT BEEN IF THERE WILL BE A 6+" SNOWBAND...BUT WHERE.

Here at the weather lab, it looks like a general area of 4" to 7" in southern Minnesota Thursday.

There may be a narrow band that could produce some heavier 6" to 10" totals along the I-35 & I-90 corridors, including northern Iowa.

Prepare for snowy travel conditions in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Thursday!

Twin Cities: On the northern edge

It appears the Twin Cities may just escape the brunt of Thursday's system. The GFS and other models have been consistent in keeping most of the snow south of the metro. The NAM has tried to move snow north...but the latest run is more in line with the GFS's "southern solution."

Sunday: Storm still looks good, but track is a wild card

I'm still closely watching Sunday's potential storm for Minnesota, which is still out over the North Pacific today.

Think about that for a minute. There's a storm over 2,000 miles away in the North Pacific that's likely to affect Minnesota Sunday. That we even have the tools and technology to even make that statement is really quite amazing and useful I think!

But I digress....

Overall the storm structure still looks potent for Sunday, but the track has shifted north.

If that holds, the heaviest snow bands would end up in central and northern Minnesota, The metro could still be in line for some heavy snow....the latest GFS runs are suggesting around 5" or so near the metro...with 6" to 12"+ potential in a large area of central and northern Minnesota.

GFS model suggests heavier snowfall totals north and south of the metro from Thursday & Sunday storms combined.

It's still too early to pinpoint who will get heavy snow or just how many inches. But the storm is still "on" for somebody, at this point it may just be a question of where.

**If the track moves much further north a "dry slot" may limit snow from the metro south, and keep heavier snow totals in central and northern Minnesota.**

At least there are 3 likely storms for "Somewhere, Minnesota" in the next week or so!

Oh yeah, did I mention there's potential for another storm next week?

Stay tuned!

PH